- Altcoins have had a good six months, but this does not signal altcoin season.
- Bitcoin dominance chart shows accelerated gains in altcoin market capitalization.
Bitcoin (BTC) has not been able to shake off its halving blues even though almost a month has passed since the incident. Market participants are eagerly awaiting upside for both BTC and altcoins.
The altcoin season began in September 2023 and has been on a downward trend for the past six weeks.
There is more to come in altcoins, but we have already seen significant returns in six months. How crazy can altcoin season get once Bitcoin reaches its peak this cycle?
Reproduce the performance of past cycles
Source: TOTAL3 on TradingView
During the 2020 cycle, altcoin market cap increased from $51.2 billion in May 2020 to $1.13 trillion in November 2021.
That was 21.6x earnings, and a similar result during this cycle could result in a market capitalization of $6 trillion.
While this sounds like an incredible number compared to $640 billion at press time, cryptocurrency cycles have a way of shattering expectations.
Altcoins have performed well in recent months but have competed with Bitcoin for a share of the capital inflows.
This could change as investors become more willing to take on more risk, become confident in expanding cryptocurrency returns, and seek to increase their altcoin holdings.
Bitcoin’s dominance may hold the key
Source: BTC.D on TradingView
As Bitcoin dominance begins to decline, the altcoin wind could become even more bullish. This chart shows Bitcoin’s share of the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization.
When a full-fledged downtrend begins, it indicates that participants are more eager to buy altcoins than Bitcoin.
Over the past 13 months, Bitcoin’s dominance has slowly increased. This is typical of a bear market and lasts well into the latter half of a bull market.
The months when this indicator is in free fall are when the true altcoin season begins.
Read Ethereum (ETH) price prediction for 2024-2025
Comparing the altcoin market cap chart with the BTC.D chart, we can see that altcoins have gained the most when Bitcoin dominance is in a downward trend.
Therefore, market participants awaiting altcoin season this cycle may be wary of a decline in Bitcoin’s dominance.