Spot ETH ETFs have 50% chance of approval in May: Bitwise, Grayscale, Galaxy execs

The executives of three asset management companies reached an agreement. February 13th A panel discussion on the pending spot Ethereum ETF has a 50% chance of being approved in May of this year.

Matt Hougan, Global Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, said:

“I think it’s likely that we’ll get an ETH ETF reasonably soon. I think the chances are 50/50 by May… “

Steve Kurz, global head of Galaxy Asset Management, agreed that there is a 50% chance of a spot Ethereum ETF being approved by May. He also predicted a 75% chance by the end of 2024.

Dave LaValle, Grayscale’s global head of ETFs, also set a 50% chance of approval by May. On whether Grayscale would sue the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) if rejected, LaValle said: “We will have to see what the results are. “We have to look at the facts,” he said.

Grayscale previously forced the SEC to review its spot Bitcoin ETF application through legal action. The SEC cited this incident as a reason for approving a spot Bitcoin ETF in January.

The 50% probability expressed by each executive is broadly consistent with other predictions. JP Morgan member Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes there is a 50% chance that a spot Ethereum ETF will be approved in May. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, a colleague of Eric Balchunas who moderated today’s panel discussion, predicted a 60% chance of approval. Finally, the Polymarket prediction market suggests a 48% chance of approval by the end of May.

Eight companies plan to offer ETH ETFs.

Of the three companies listed above, only Grayscale and Galaxy (affiliated with Invesco) have Ethereum ETF applications pending with regulators.

Other spot Ethereum ETF applicants include VanEck, ARK and 21Shares, Hashdex, BlackRock (iShares), Fidelity and Franklin Templeton.

The SEC has until May 23 to approve or deny VanEck’s application. They will not necessarily approve the fund, but are likely to decide on other similar applications at the same time.

Currently, there are no spot Ethereum ETFs in the US market. Bitwise currently offers two Ethereum futures ETFs that do not provide exposure to the spot Ethereum market. Grayscale offers the Ethereum Trust and the Ethereum Futures Trust, both of which it plans to convert to ETFs. Many other asset managers also offer Ethereum futures ETFs.