If the price of Bitcoin falls below $60,000, more pain could begin ahead, according to Standard Chartered Bank.
“With BTC falling below $60,000, the path to the $50,000-$52,000 range has now reopened,” Geoffrey Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank, said in a statement to The Block on Wednesday. He said: “The drivers seem to be a combination of cryptocurrency-specific macros and broader macros.”
Cryptocurrency-related concerns include five consecutive days of outflows from a U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund and the recent lackluster response to the launch of a spot Bitcoin and Ether ETF in Hong Kong, Kendrick said.
According to Kendrick, with continued outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and the average ETF purchase price currently below $58,000, there is a risk of liquidation. “More than half of the spot ETF positions are underwater, so the risk of liquidation of some of them must also be considered,” he said.
According to Kendrick, in the case of the Hong Kong spot ETF, low trading volume has contributed to the recent decline in the price of Bitcoin.
In addition to cryptocurrency-related issues, broader macroeconomic trends are also influencing Bitcoin’s price dynamics, Kendrick said. He specifically pointed out that liquidity measures in the United States have deteriorated sharply since mid-April, adding that assets such as cryptocurrencies that often thrive on liquidity are being affected by these tightening conditions.
Kendrick concluded: “Liquidity is important when it matters, of course, but it is critical now given strong US inflation data and the low likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.” “Re-enter BTC into the $50,000-$52,000 range,” he said. Or is the US 15-day CPI favorable?”
Standard Chartered maintains its Bitcoin price prediction target for 2024 and 2025.
Last month, Standard Chartered raised its Bitcoin price forecast target for the end of 2024 to $150,000 from its previous estimate of $100,000. The bank said at the time that the price could reach $250,000 at some point in 2025 if strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue or foreign reserve managers start buying Bitcoin.
Kendrick continues his Bitcoin price prediction targets for 2024 and 2025. “It may take a while now, but as we get closer to a Trump election, I think we can rally hard from September through the end of the year,” Kendrick said. Blocks on request.
(Updated with additional comments from Geoffrey Kendrick regarding Bitcoin price predictions for 2024 and 2025.)
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