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Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election on November 5, the year could end at a new all-time high.According to Standard Chartered’s Jeff Kendrick,
“I think bitcoin will end the year at a new all-time high regardless of who wins the U.S. election. If Trump wins, it will be $125,000, if Harris wins, it will be $75,000,” the bank’s head of foreign exchange and digital asset research said in an email Thursday.
The Standard Chartered analyst added that the US presidential election has less of an impact on Bitcoin’s future trajectory than if Joe Biden had been the Democratic nominee, and overall, less of a factor than the market expects. Kendrick argues that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high by the end of 2024, as “positive factors dominate regardless of the election outcome.”
Regulatory development is a key driver
Kendrick pointed to regulatory changes as a significant positive for the Bitcoin price rally. “We think that progress on deregulation, particularly the repeal of SAB 121, which imposed strict accounting rules on banks’ digital asset holdings, will continue into 2025 regardless of who is in the White House,” Kendrick said.
He also highlighted the U.S. Treasury market trend as a tailwind for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. “We believe the current trend in the U.S. Treasury market, namely the breakeven point falling below real yields, risk-neutral yields falling, and term premiums stabilizing, is re-steepening the curve, creating positive momentum for Bitcoin,” he said.
Standard Chartered analysts added that they expect a seasonal rebound in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows in October.
How the election results affect cryptocurrencies
A Trump victory is generally seen as a positive for cryptocurrencies, especially given his recent appearance on Bitcoin 2024 and announcements about DeFi projects. Analysts believe the Trump administration will accelerate the progress of pro-cryptocurrency policies.
However, many analysts see a Kamala Harris victory as potentially bearish for Bitcoin, as it could delay some of the expected progress from the Trump administration. “A Harris win is likely to cause an initial price drop, but I expect the dips to be bought as the market recognizes that there will be progress on the regulatory front and other positive factors take hold,” Kendrick said.
Media commentators described Trump’s performance in Tuesday’s televised presidential debate as underwhelming. After the debate, Vice President Kamala Harris’s odds of winning the November election rose from 46% to 50% on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform. Meanwhile, Trump’s odds of winning dropped from 52% to 49%.
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