On April 3, in six months, the production of US government debt fell to the lowest level in six months, as investors raised concerns about the global trade war and responded to the US dollar’s weakness. The 10 -year Treasury’s yield decreased from 4.4% a week ago, showing strong demand for buyers.
US 10 -year financial yield (left) vs. bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / COINTELEGRAPH
At first glance, the higher the risk of economic downturn, the more negative Bitcoin (BTC) may seem negative. However, if the return due to fixed income investment decreases, it encourages allocation for alternative assets, including cryptocurrency. Over time, traders can reduce exposure to bonds, especially if inflation increases. As a result, in 2025, the road to Bitcoin’s history remains plausible.
Targets create a ‘supply shock’ in the United States and affect inflation and fixed income.
The recent US import tariffs have a negative impact on corporate profitability, which can be argued that some companies will delete and reduce market liquidity. Ultimately, all measures that increase risk avoidance tend to have a short -term negative effect on Bitcoin, especially in consideration of strong correlation with the S & P 500 index.
AXEL MERK, the chief investor and portfolio manager of MercESTMENTS, says that the tariff creates a “supply shock” and says that the availability of products and services due to price rising causes imbalances compared to demand. This effect is amplified when interest rates decrease and potentially open the way of inflation pressure.
Source: x/Axelmerk
Even if you don’t see Bitcoin as a hedge to inflation, the attraction of fixed income investment is significantly reduced in such scenarios. Moreover, if only 5%of the world’s $ 140 trillion bond market pursues higher profits from other places, potential inflows to stocks, goods, real estate, gold and bitcoin can be shifted to $ 7 trillion.
I prefer US dollar weak replacement assets among the highest gold medals in the gold medal.
Gold has recorded a record high and has soared to a $ 21 trillion market cap, and there is still a significant price increase. The higher the price, the more profitable mining operations can be resumed and encouraging additional investments in exploration, extraction and purification. As production expands, supply growth will naturally act as a limited element of gold long -term bull.
Regardless of the US interest rate trend, the US dollar has been weakened with foreign currency baskets, as measured by the DXY index. On April 3, the index fell to 102 to the lowest level in six months. If the trust in the US dollar relatively falls relatively, it can encourage other countries to explore alternative value shops, including Bitcoin.
US dollar index (DXY). Source: TradingView / COINTELEGRAPH
This transition does not happen overnight, but the trade war can gradually move from the US dollar. Nobody expects to return to gold standards or bitcoins to be a major component of national reserves, but all movements from the dollar strengthen the long -term rising potential of Bitcoin and strengthen the position as an alternative asset.
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Japan, China, Hong Kong and Singapore have $ 2.63 trillion in the US Treasury. If the region selects retaliation, the return on bonds can cancel the trend, increasing the US government’s new debt issuance cost and weakening the dollar. In these scenarios, investors will avoid exposure to stocks and ultimately prefer insufficient alternative assets such as Bitcoin.
The fact that the timing Bitcoin’s market floor is almost impossible, but despite the worsening the global economic uncertainty, the fact that it has a level of $ 82,000 is a encouraging signal of elasticity.
This article is for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.