BNB has been in the spotlight recently as Binance founder and former CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao was released from a U.S. federal prison on September 27 after serving four months for violating anti-money laundering laws.
While some believe the launch of CZ could trigger a rebound in BNB (BNB), others expect its performance to mirror that of the broader altcoin market.
BNB, similar to Bitcoin (BTC), has been stuck in a large range for several months, indicating indecision between bulls and bears.
Daily view of cryptocurrency market data. source: Coin360
However, a positive sign is that investors are optimistic about the long-term prospects of both Bitcoin and BNB. Some analysts expect Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high in the fourth quarter, while others expect it to hit new highs in 2025. For BNB, some analysts expect it to rise up to $1,000.
The big question is which will perform better: Bitcoin or BNB? Will BNB, which is so far below its all-time high for Bitcoin, bounce back? Let’s find out by analyzing the BNB/BTC chart.
BNB/BTC Weekly Price Analysis
The pair is attempting to pull back from the downtrend, but the recovery is facing selling just below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.010 BTC. This means sentiment is still negative and traders are selling through the rally.
BNB/BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingView
If the price continues lower and falls below the 20-week simple moving average (0.009 BTC), the BNB/BTC pair may reach the 50-week simple moving average (0.008 BTC). This level is likely to attract buyers, which could keep the pair between the 50-week SMA and 0.010 BTC for some time.
Conversely, if the price bounces off the 20-week EMA, it means the bulls are buying the dip. The bulls will then attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at 0.010 BTC. If successful, the pair could move towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.012 BTC and after that to the 61.8% retracement level of 0.014 BTC. Buyers must overcome this barrier to signal the end of a downtrend.
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BNB/BTC daily price analysis
The pair has been trading within a wide range between 0.008 BTC and 0.010 BTC for several months. The two moving averages are crossing each other and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
BNB/BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price falls below the 50-day SMA (0.009 BTC), the pair may fall to 0.0086 BTC. This is an important level for the bulls to defend, as a drop below this level could send the pair to the bottom of the 0.008 BTC range.
On the upside, the first resistance is at 0.0097 BTC. If this level is cleared, the pair could retest the important level of 0.010 BTC. A sharp reversal at 0.010 BTC indicates that the range-bound action may remain intact, while a breakout could initiate a new upward move. A breakout of the range gives the pair a target target of 0.012 BTC.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.