ETHER (ETH) has decreased almost 70% with Bitcoin (BTC) after the merger, weakening the market position of Ether Leeum and raising questions about price prospects.
ETH/BTC weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView
In September 2022, the transition to Ether Lee’s steak proof (POS) aimed to become a game changer of the network.
It promised to improve energy efficiency and make ETH a “deflation” asset by reducing supply over time, and some analysts predicted that they would reverse the market cap of Bitcoin.
But two years later, Ether Lee’s performance tells a different story because Bitcoin has gained about 160%of ether after the merger.
BTC/ETH performance after merger. Source: TradingView
ETH supply rate near 2.5 years after the merger
As of February 4, Ethereum’s supply growth has reached nearly 0%, Money showed that the disinfection effect of Merge was suspended despite the early reduction of Ether’s supply.
source: X
At best, the supply rate in April 2024 was -0.37%.
Ether Lee’s deflation mechanism relies heavily on EIP-1559, which burns some of the transaction fee. However, as the onChain activity decreases, the gas fee decreases, reducing ETH burns.
The data of the token terminal shows this trend. Ether Lee’s average transaction fee reached more than $ 15 in March 2024, but by April, a sharp decline dropped to less than $ 5.
Ether Leeum average transaction fee (1 year). Source: Token Terminal
The downward trend continued in mid -2012, and the demand for network decreased steadily. The fees were stabilized in late 2024 and early 2025, but now the ether supply has increased because it is much lower than the previous best.
Investor to off -road Ether Lee: On Chain Data
According to data shared by Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, Ether Leeum’s long -term holders have reduced exposure after the merger.
According to Alphractal’s data, the wallet with more than 100,000 ET has greatly reduced its possession and reduced the address of one million ETH.
Ether Leeum specifies the address with at least 1m and 100K ETH balance. Source: Alphractal
Wedson said, “Long and short -term holders have stopped ETH accumulation since September 2022.
“We do not purchase the exchange address, the previous miner and the ETH of more than 100K.”
Ether Leeum Supply Age. Source: Alphractal
Data suggests that major holders may lose their confidence in ETH’s long -term prospects. In contrast, the Bitcoin wallet with 100,000 BTC and million BTC has actually increased after the merger.
Bitcoin wallet with a minimum balance of 100K and one million BTC. Source: Glass Node
As a result, the market share of Bitcoin and SOL has increased and other high growth ecosystems.
In particular, Solana has emerged as the largest rival of Ethereum and attracts Defi and NFT projects that can be released in Ethereum. Now, almost half of the Dex market, which has been fueled by the pump, has been ordered, and recently surpassed Ether Leeum.
SOL/ETH weekly price performance chart. Source: TradingView
WEDSON added that the merger was “the worst happening in Ether Leeum.”
But Joseph Lubin, co -founder of Ether Leeum
“What we see is a whale that uses economic turmoil and negative emotions to shake, stop, stop, and reverse the same playbook.”
But everybody agrees more and more because the trader knows more and more ETH is losing the land for BTC every time ETH is over $ 100,000.
source: X
Can ETH/BTC recover?
Ethereum’s weekly chart shows ETH/BTC in the overbidden area, according to the relative strength index (RSI). At the same time, the pair is traded near the historical support area defined in the 0.024-0.023 BTC range.
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Both indicators have popped out in the past, indicating that in the next few weeks, relief rally may be on the horizon. In this case, ETH/BTC can rise from about 0.042 BTC to 50 weeks index movement (50 weeks EMA; Red Wave) from March or April.
relevant: Ether Lee Rium requires more blockchain activities and adoption to reclaim $ 4K.
However, since Ether Leeum’s long-term weakness remains intact, the decisive decision can be further reduced to 0.020 BTC, below the 0.024-0.023 BTC range, March 2020, March 2020.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading measures include risks, and the reader must do his own research when making a decision.