A popular indicator has been turned into “altcoin season” for the opposite reasons suggested by the label. Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal, which indicates when altcoins or altcoins outperform Bitcoin, is above 50, rose to 86. Alt is not rebounding. Bitcoin is falling faster than ever now.
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The signals track relative performance, so Alt can move higher or lower to take the lead. This is the second case. After nearly two years of declines, the altcoin held steady with few sellers, while Bitcoin fell significantly, falling to around $63,600, according to CoinDesk data. As Glassnode puts it, Bitcoin “is still doing most of the work.”
During real altcoin season, as capital rises, it rotates into smaller tokens. This is an empty version of the reading on alternative investments turning bullish because Bitcoin is selling, which is bearish for the market as a whole. Relative strength is not a rally.
While Bitcoin is falling, until alternative stock prices start to rise on their own instead of holding on, the signal tells us more about Bitcoin’s weakness than about demand for anything else.