Bitcoin (BTC) price has rebounded more than 25% from its September 6 low of around $52,546, and on-chain and technical indicators indicate that BTC continues to recover to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin open interest has reached an all-time high.
Bitcoin’s open interest (OI)-weighted perpetual futures funding ratio has hit a multi-month high, indicating that the current bullish situation may persist in the near term.
According to data from CoinGlass, the current Bitcoin OI-weighted funding ratio is 0.0136%, a level last seen on June 7, when Bitcoin briefly hit $71,950.
Positive funding ratios generally indicate bullish market sentiment, but should be interpreted with caution given the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets.
Bitcoin IO weighted funding rate. Source: Coinglass
Bitcoin open interest (OI) across all exchanges hit an all-time high of $19.7 billion on October 15, according to additional data from market intelligence firm CryptoQuant, which could push prices higher as more capital flows into the market. This is a sign that there will be a lot of movement.
“This upward trend in the derivatives market signals increased liquidity inflows and heightened interest in the cryptocurrency space,” CryptoQuant analysts said in a recent post on X.
“The rise in funding rates further suggests bullish sentiment among traders.”
Bitcoin IO across all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
A high OI confirms increased investor interest, but cannot be considered inherently bullish as futures buyers and sellers always coincide. Increasing open interest creates volatility rather than directional bias.
Bitcoin supply on exchanges continues to decline
Bitcoin’s potential to set a new record is evidenced by on-chain data tracking BTC supply on exchanges, according to data from CryptoQuant. This supply has reached its lowest level in nearly five years.
As of October 15, centralized cryptocurrency exchanges held approximately $2.68 million in BTC, down 20% from the all-time high of $3.37 million reached in July 2021. This is happening alongside a 55% increase in the price of Bitcoin year-to-date. .
Bitcoin is held on exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
Reduced supply on exchanges means traders prefer to hold BTC rather than sell it for fiat or other digital assets. This also increases the potential for Bitcoin to continue its bull run in 2024.
Growing Demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs
There will be continued demand for BTC as institutional investors continue to pour capital into physical Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
According to data from SoSoValue Investors, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded positive flows in four of the last seven trading days, suggesting continued institutional interest in these investment products.
On October 14, these investments recorded their highest net inflows since June 4, with inflows of over $555.8 million.
Total Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Flows. Source: SOSO Value
ETF Store President Nate Geraci declared in an
“Advisors and institutional investors continue to slowly adopt them.”
Bitcoin RSI suggests a BTC price of $233,000.
Bitcoin price has fallen below its 2021 all-time high of $69,000 over the past four months, but the monthly RSI suggests a potential rebound in the coming weeks.
In an October 14 Bitcoin analysis for the
The analyst cited historical highs in monthly RSI figures, which corresponds to the highest cycle for Bitcoin price.
“So the question is whether you think 88-90 RSI per month is possible. So why can’t we hit $250,000?”
BTC/USD weekly chart. source: Bitcoin Data 21
Analysts say Bitcoin price could reach these six-digit levels as early as the first quarter of 2025.
relevant: Metaplanet stock price soars 16% after purchasing 107 Bitcoins
Bitcoin has strong 200-day SMA support.
On October 14, the price of Bitcoin rose above a key level encompassed by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at $63,335, fueling a market-wide recovery.
There have been several recent attempts to reclaim this level, but each has failed to trigger a broader price trend.
Note that the last three times BTC price has crossed above the 200-day SMA, it has experienced parabolic moves.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading above this important level, which acts as immediate support.
BTC/USD daily chart. source: TradingView
According to data from IntoTheBlock, the 200-day SMA of $63,336 is within the $61,770-$63,728 demand zone, with approximately 1.1 million BTC previously purchased by 2.5 million addresses.
IOMAP chart. Source: IntoTheBlock
The chart above also suggests that Bitcoin has strong support relative to the resistance it faces on its recovery path, suggesting that the path of least resistance is upwards.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.