‘Uptober’ breaks all-time high? 5 things to know about Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) is coming off the end of an unusually strong “Rektember”, rising around 9% on expectations of further BTC price rises.

• Bitcoin still holds most of the support it regained last week due to a selloff to close the week.
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell took the stage to start the week with markets divided over the size of November’s rate cut.
• While 2024 could still be Bitcoin’s best September on record, “Uptober” generally promises an upside of 23%.
• Based on Coinbase app downloads, retail interest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is growing.
• Whales, which have been on the market for more than several months, are resisting the urge to take profits from their BTC positions.

Retest of $64,000 support fails to undermine Bitcoin bulls’ confidence

Unlike the previous two weeks, Bitcoin sold off until the weekly close on September 29th, with support in the mid-$64,000 range coming in for a retest.

Bitstamp’s local low was $64,198 before a slight recovery, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

With the monthly close now just around the corner, popular trader CrypNuevo, who predicted a downturn, was among those looking to buy BTC in the future.

“I could see some volatility related to the monthly close,” he admitted in a thread dedicated to X with a 4-hour chart.

“So by then it could sweep the high and get back to support. “If it rises again from the support line and regains the high point, it will take quite some time to reach the second resistance line.”

CrypNuevo noted the liquidity on the exchange order book potentially favoring a trip to $67,000 in the future.

“Losing support would lead us to a downside liquidation,” he added.

Meanwhile, bullish Matthew Hyland suggested that a deeper BTC price correction would not spell the end of Bitcoin’s comeback for a longer period of time.

“If Bitcoin closes the week above $65,000, we will be setting highs and lows and establishing a trend change for the first time in more than six months,” he told X followers.

“The coming downturn will be an opportunity and prejudice should be replaced by bullishness. The $52.6,000 pullback is just a high and low point.”

The market is watching Powell and the US unemployment rate.

U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell kicked off macroeconomic week with a speech on September 30.

Chairman Powell will attend the National Association for Business Economics conference and will be closely watching for signals about the Fed’s next interest rate move.

After this month’s surprise 0.5% cut, markets are hoping for a repeat performance at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on November 7. However, this possibility could vary greatly depending on Powell’s tone and macro data. Trend.

Unemployment figures take center stage this week, which is already known to be a catalyst for Bitcoin volatility in 2024.

Commentary, Trading Resources Kobeissi Letter considered the possibility that the Fed may be “lagging behind” in lowering interest rates.

“Lower interest rates were initially ineffective in supporting the economy because it took six to 24 months for the effects to be felt,” X said.

But Kobeissi is among those who argue that even the initial 0.5% reduction went too far.

But the latest estimate from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts it ahead by another 0.5% in November, at 52.2%.

Elsewhere, the fact that China is embarking on a major stimulus package is a topic of interest to risk asset traders.

“China has recorded five consecutive quarters of deflation, the longest streak since 1999,” Kobeissi said on the topic.

“Now we are seeing capital flowing back into the stock market as stimulus measures kick in.”

After all, isn’t it such a “Rektember”?

Bitcoin is still coming off its best September performance on record, despite coming in slightly at its monthly close.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows a striking contrast between 2024 and a typical September for BTC/USD.

Over the past decade, Bitcoin ob average has tended to end the month down 3.6%, but the current bull market is seeing it up about 9%.

There are much more exciting times ahead for the bulls. October, commonly known as “Uptober” in the cryptocurrency world thanks to impressive market performance, is almost here.

CoinGlass reveals a tough challenge for BTC/USD next month. The average upside in October is almost 23%.

At current levels, this would mean a new all-time high, which commentators nonetheless see as a distinct possibility.

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe said in one of his latest It was predicted.

Since 2013, there have only been two “red” Octobers, in which the maximum drawdown was less than 13%.

Coinbase Rebounds

A key factor in BTC price action since March has been the sharp decline in retail investor participation.

Over the next half year, as Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies rebounded, mainstream consumer interest dropped significantly. But that may now change.

As Cointelegraph reports, exchanges and trading are slowly returning to the mainstream consciousness, as evidenced by specific app downloads from Coinbase, the largest trading platform in the United States.

As of September 28, the Coinbase app ranked in the top 400 on the Apple AppStore, and research shows that once it reaches the top 200, bull markets tend to kick into high gear.

“That is, when Bitcoin was testing all-time highs ($20,000 in November 2020 and $69-74,000 in March 2024), more people started downloading apps,” analyst account Bitcoindata21 wrote in I wrote in the post: .

Bitcoindata21 similarly pointed out that if Coinbase is not included in the top 500 most popular apps, the cryptocurrency market tends to enter a bearish phase.

“Most importantly, the app ranked #1 in December 2017, April 2021, and November 2021…” they concluded.

Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium, which measures the exchange price difference between the BTC/USD pair on Coinbase and BTC/USDT on Binance, the largest global exchange, is now positive again.

Young whales reveal their colors

When it comes to market movements originating from large investors, on-chain data suggests a new trend is emerging.

relevant: 3 Signs Bitcoin Price Is Not Ready to Hit All-Time Highs

In one of its Quicktake blog posts on September 27, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant distinguished between old and new Bitcoin whales.

“Over the past month, whales that have been inactive for more than 155 days have become less dominant in profit-taking as the Bitcoin price recovers,” wrote contributor Cauê Oliveira.

“On the other hand, new whales are actively taking profits, indicating interest in liquidating positions is dominant among institutional players who entered the market in the last five to six months.”

The attached chart shows the realized profits of the whale population, with the old hands still firmly entrenched in their positions.

“Older institutional investors were more dominant in the first half of the year with high levels of profit-taking, but now appear to be waiting for a more favorable market for their positions,” Oliveira added.

“This could reduce selling pressure at this point and give prices room to build a more positive structure during the recovery.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.