Analysts argue that last night’s US presidential debate turned into a ‘news selling’ event, with risk aversion fueled by consensus that Trump’s performance against Harris was below expectations.
Bitcoin price has recovered slightly to around $56,400 after falling 2.6% from around $57,700 to $56,100 in the hours following Tuesday’s televised presidential debate. “The US presidential debate was an event to sell news, Trump’s performance was below expectations compared to his previous debate with Biden, and the consensus view seems to be that it hurt him,” Bitfinex analysts said.
After the debate, risk-off trading behavior intensified, with analysts emphasizing that a Trump victory is generally seen as favorable for risky assets, including crypto. “Given the recent news about DeFi projects and his campaign promise to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, his involvement in crypto is now clear,” the analysts told The Block.
QCP Capital analysts expect risk aversion to increase as uncertainty grows over the outcome of the November 5 election, with no clear favorite emerging. “With no clear frontrunner in this election and the policy positions of both parties becoming more ambiguous, we are likely to see a risk aversion in riskier assets as Election Day approaches,” QCP Capital analysts said.
BRN analyst Valentin Fournier suggested that Kamala Harris’s debate performance has caused the market to reassess her chances of winning, potentially putting downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. “This is a bearish signal for Bitcoin, as Harris is delaying some of the progress that could be made under the Trump administration,” he added.
Harris’ odds improve in prediction markets after debate
QCP Capital suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris’s performance in the debate increased her chances of winning the election. “Trump seemed quite taken aback by Harris’s remarks, and online betting sites saw the odds shift in Harris’ favor after the debate, so Harris appears to have won in the court of public opinion,” QCP Capital analysts said.
After Tuesday’s presidential debate, Harris’s odds of winning the November election rose from 46% to 49% on cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket. Trump’s odds, meanwhile, fell from 52% to 49%. Trump’s odds fell 6 cents to 47 cents on PredictIt, while Harris’s odds rose from 53 cents to 57 cents.
Ruslan Lienkha, head of market research at YouHodler, sees Harris’ improved odds as putting additional pressure on crypto prices in the medium term. “Under Democratic rule, regulation is likely to remain relatively unfavorable to crypto market participants,” he told The Block.
Bitcoin Bitcoin
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It was down nearly 1.5% over the last 24 hours, trading at $56,400 at 8:50 a.m. ET. The price page of the block. The price of Ether fell by about 1% over the same period, to $2,322.
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