There has been a lot of talk about the impact of the crypto industry on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Republican candidate Donald Trump has championed the industry during his campaign this year, going so far as to call himself the “crypto president.” Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has been much quieter since officially entering the race.
As for what the outcome would be for the cryptocurrency industry, VanEck presents a less straightforward case.
“(We) have Kamala Harris and Donald Trump going strong. Bitcoin Bitcoin
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Each has more nuanced implications for the broader digital asset market,” wrote Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, and Nathan Frankovitz, a digital asset investment analyst. “Both administrations are likely to maintain, if not accelerate, fiscal spending, which could lead to additional quantitative easing, especially if it is exacerbated by anti-business policies.”
VanEck made the case that Harris should retain SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who Trump has said he wants to fire, and align her fiscal policies with those of Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has a much stricter regulatory environment within her own party, to discourage institutional adoption of digital assets.
SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, who served as a spokesman in President Trump’s first administration, said earlier this week that a group of cryptocurrency advocates he partners with is working with the Harris campaign to steer the Democratic Party away from Gensler and Warren.
“But for Bitcoin alone, we would argue that a Kamala Harris presidency could be better for Bitcoin than a second Trump term, as it would, in our view, accelerate many of the structural problems driving Bitcoin adoption,” VanEck wrote. “If so, Bitcoin’s inherent regulatory clarity would likely make it more competitive with other digital assets.”
According to VanEck’s recent analysis, the entire cryptocurrency industry could benefit if Trump is sworn in for a second term.
“(We) believe a Trump presidency would be bullish across the crypto ecosystem as a whole, as it would likely result in more deregulation and more business-friendly policies, especially for those who have been increasingly scrutinized by regulators over the past four years,” VanEck wrote.
However, other analysts see only one candidate that would benefit Bitcoin. A team at Bernstein predicted that if Trump wins the election, Bitcoin prices would approach the $80,000 to $90,000 range by the end of the year. Conversely, they predicted that if Harris wins, Bitcoin prices would fall and test the $30,000 to $40,000 range.
“Regardless of the election outcome,” VanEck wrote, “the trend of rising budget deficits and rising national debt is likely to continue,” suggesting a weak U.S. dollar, a macroeconomic environment in which Bitcoin has historically thrived.
According to The Block’s BTC price page, Bitcoin was trading around $63,110 at the time of publication.
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