With the fourth Bitcoin halving just 12 days away, the community is buzzing with anticipation, speculating that Bitcoin could possibly break the significant $100,000 threshold. Joe Consorti of Theya Research has provided a comprehensive analysis that takes a closer look at the complexities of Bitcoin’s current market position and what could push Bitcoin’s value to new heights.
This event, a cornerstone of Bitcoin’s design to halve the reward for mining a new block every four years, has historically sparked bullish momentum, and the current scenario appears to be consistent with past precedents.
Importance of Bitcoin Integration Phase
spouse’s analyze Titled “Bitcoin’s 4th halving is (12) days away, $100,000 is even further behind”, it begins with an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation phase. He argues that this phase is a critical period before a potential bull market.
“Bitcoin continues to consolidate. Holding on to the previous consolidation phase of $30,000 and $40,000, BTC will spend several weeks exchanging hands between buyers and sellers at key psychological price levels before heading higher,” Consorti told X.
He highlights that this is the sixth week of Bitcoin consolidation above $60,000, marking the lowest period of volatility at this price level and setting a new all-time high. According to Consorti, this indicates strong market confidence that could serve as the basis for the next surge.
This analysis explores broader market dynamics, particularly the breakdown in correlations within the current cycle that has made the stock market an unreliable indicator of U.S. economic sentiment. “We have experienced massive correlations breaking this cycle across markets (…) This has a lot to do with companies extending debt maturities in 2021 when interest rates were still low and the US Treasury’s large crisis-level fiscal deficits,” Consorti said. “There is,” explains Consorti. .
He argues that these factors have contributed to the decoupling of traditional economic indicators from stock market performance, unintentionally benefiting asset prices, including Bitcoin.
The role of ETF and spot market
A significant portion of Consorti’s analysis is devoted to the behavior of Bitcoin ETFs and their interaction with the spot market.
Despite a slowdown in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, trading volume remains robust, indicating a healthy market. “This week was one of the lowest for BTC ETF inflows, although net outflows are still healthy compared to previous weeks,” Consorti noted, suggesting ETF shares are actively changing hands. It reflects the integration seen on the ground. market.
According to Consorti, this interaction between the ETF and the spot market provides a stable foundation for the Bitcoin price, further solidifying the case for an imminent uptrend. “The funding rate is very low and the price is still the same (about $70,000). During this period of consolidation, the spot market actually controlled Bitcoin price action. “This means a more stable base for the upcoming uptrend and will further boost confidence that this consolidation will outpace the upside rather than the downside,” Consorti concluded.
Expert consensus on optimistic outlook
Consorti’s optimistic forecast was echoed by other industry experts who also shared their optimistic predictions. Another prominent analyst, CRG, said, “It’s a great close to the week. “It broke an all-time high this week,” he said, suggesting positive momentum that could continue even after the halving.
great weekly finish
It reached an all-time high this week.
Source: My Plums pic.twitter.com/wyxwomdDjZ
– CRG (@MacroCRG) April 8, 2024
Cryptocurrency analyst TechDev has highlighted a rare pattern in Bitcoin trading history. “It doesn’t happen often. Bitcoin closed above the upper Bollinger Band for the second month in a row. The price doubled each time within three months before the next red candle.” A repeat of this historical pattern could potentially push the price of Bitcoin past $100,000.
It doesn’t happen often.#Bitcoin It closed above the upper Bollinger Band for the second month in a row.
It doubled each time within 3 months before the next red candle. pic.twitter.com/veOOOmT8Id
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) April 7, 2024
Daan Crypto Trades provided a technical perspective focusing on Bitcoin’s resistance levels and potential targets. “Previous ‘resistance’ ultimately failed to produce a major fight. It is only previous all-time highs that are causing prices to stagnate for the time being. The above goal is an idea for price discovery if we can leave this area behind.” Daan’s targets are $83,562 at the 1.272 Fib, $91,164 at the 1.414 Fib, and $102,085 at the 1.618 Fib.”
#Bitcoin High Period Level Cheat Sheet ✍️
The previous “resistance” ultimately did not cause much fighting. For the time being, it is only previous highs that are causing prices to stagnate.
The above goals are an idea for price discovery if you can leave this area behind. https://t.co/AeP9vzOk7M pic.twitter.com/BWvcg8EjLE
— Daan Cryptocurrency Trading (@DaanCrypto) April 7, 2024
At press time, BTC was trading at $69,739.
Featured image created with DALL·E, TradingView.com chart
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