The Bitcoin (BTC) price has been fluctuating between $55,000 and $58,200 for almost a week, with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $58,000 forming a solid resistance line.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the Bitcoin price is trading at $57,841, up 0.36% amid declining trading volume, indicating a prolonged period of consolidation.
Let’s take a look at why the BTC price is stagnant today.
Bitcoin Price Falls to 200-Day EMA
On July 4, Bitcoin price fell below the crucial support level provided by the 200-day EMA, driven by continued selling by the German government and the expected redemption of Mt. Gox.
There have been several attempts to recover from that level, but all have failed to trigger a broader price trend.
Instead, BTC has been “falling” below this “key SR zone” for around seven days, according to independent trader and analyst Jelle.
“Bitcoin is on track with its roadmap,” fellow analyst Daan Crypto Trades declared in a July 11 post to X.
Based on recent price action, Bitcoin has recovered $56,500, a key level that needs to be maintained to avoid “more immediate downside risk.”
Daan Crypto Trades said:
“Now we are in a big battle with Daily 200MA/EMA and Range low.”
According to FireCharts shared by trading resource Material Indicators, as the 200-day EMA declines, Bitcoin whales are buying the block of selling liquidity below this level.
According to Material Indicators, a clear candlestick above this level indicates strength among buyers.
“I hope BTC Bulls will show a bullish signal by breaking the 200-day MA and 21-day MA in one daily candle. If not, it will be a bearish signal.”
Bitcoin whales continue to accumulate
Bitcoin whales appear unfazed by the recent decline, viewing it as an opportunity to increase their holdings. Glassnode data shared by independent trader Ali Martinez shows a Bitcoin accumulation trend score of 0.444, suggesting investors are accumulating more.
The Accumulation Trend Score is a metric that reflects the relative size of entities actively accumulating coins on-chain in terms of BTC holdings.
A positive score indicates that whales are accumulating more bitcoin than they distribute, while a negative score indicates the opposite.
According to Glassnode, the spike in trend scores indicates a shift from distribution to accumulation across almost all cohorts. This shift mirrors a similar accumulation pattern observed in October 2023, which preceded Bitcoin’s massive rally from $25,000 to $49,000, spurred by the launch of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
This accumulation is supported by data from CryptoQuant, which shows a surge in inflows into accumulation addresses on June 10 after Bitcoin fell below $54,000.
This accumulation of BTC, especially by large investors, shows that they have no intention of liquidating their Bitcoin holdings, which reduces market volatility.
There is no Bitcoin price volatility yet.
From a historical perspective, Bitcoin’s volatility remains at an all-time low.
CryptoQuant reports that trading activity has slowed down since April as profit takers anticipate a larger breakout.
According to TradingView data, as of July 11, Bitcoin’s historical volatility index is 8.86, well below its 2021 high of 42.7.
All of these factors are painting a picture of the current Bitcoin market, with prices currently appearing to be stuck in a narrow range.
However, changes always happen very quickly, so market participants should carefully monitor on-chain indicators to stay informed.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.