Will $100,000 Bitcoin Price Trigger a Big Correction?

Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $98,000 for the first time in history following reports that President-elect Donald Trump’s team is considering creating a White House position to oversee cryptocurrency policy.

On November 21, the price of BTC surged more than 4.50% to an all-time high of $98,367 (Bitstamp data). The gains boosted the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization by 3.65%, reaching the milestone of $3.17 trillion.

“Trump trade” euphoria could allow Bitcoin to reach its long-anticipated $100,000 price target by the end of 2024, with cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket hitting record highs in the six figures with 92% of bets on it. Recorded.

Meanwhile, there are growing calls for the Bitcoin price to rise even higher in 2025.

BTC price could reach $200,000 by 2025: Bernstein Research

Bernstein analysts predicted in October’s “Black Book” that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.

Their optimistic forecast stems from growing institutional demand, positive regulatory changes, and cryptocurrency-supporting appointments from Donald Trump.

Another driver for Bitcoin’s potential growth is the proposal to establish a national Bitcoin reserve.

In particular, Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced a draft bill advocating for the acquisition of up to 5% of the total supply of Bitcoin over the next five years, which could mean an investment value of more than $100 billion.

Bernstein also points to surging demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the ambitious buying strategies of companies like MicroStrategy, which plans to raise $42 billion to acquire Bitcoin over the next three years.

Bitcoin’s regression model predicts a high of $150,000 this bull cycle.

Bitcoin could peak at around $150,000 in 2025 based on its post-halving performance and historical patterns identified with log regression models.

Following previous halvings, Bitcoin is up 8,000% since the 2012 halving, 2,900% since the 2016 halving, and 560% since the 2020 halving.

If a similar trajectory unfolds, a 300-400% upside for the April 2024 halving is perfectly aligned with the upper $150,000 band in the regression model.

With a pro-crypto administration potentially introducing regulatory clarity and increasing institutional adoption, Bitcoin appears poised to continue its historical pattern in 2025.

2021 Bitcoin chart fractal suggests correction after $100,000.

On a more cautious note, Bitcoin appears to be forming a bearish divergence similar to its 2021 price action, raising concerns that the current rally could peak at $100,000 before a significant correction occurs.

In 2021, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 and RSI indicated a bearish divergence. In other words, the price rose and the RSI decreased.

This divergence occurred before Bitcoin price plummeted 77% and reached its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) during the decline.

A similar setup could be happening now, with Bitcoin trading at $97,500 and RSI showing signs of weakening momentum.

relevant: Next is $100,000 Bitcoin? There is no ‘encouraging’ euphoria as BTC price hits new highs

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s current bull cycle could peak at the psychologically important $100,000 level, followed by a corrective move. The interim target for this downtrend would be the 50-week EMA around $60,000, suggesting a correction of over 40% in 2025.

Interestingly, the $60,000 level is consistent with a key rising trendline that has served as support throughout Bitcoin’s recent bull cycle.

Historical data suggests that testing this trend line can drive out weak hands and pave the way for strong buyer interest at discounted prices. A subsequent rebound could once again target the psychologically important $100,000 level by the end of 2025.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.