The XRP market is showing a similar pattern to the one leading up to its massive 60,000% price increase in 2018.
XRP’s monthly volatility has fallen to an all-time low.
On XRP’s monthly chart, the Bollinger Band Width (BBW) hit a new low in July, reflecting the XRP/USD trading pair moving within a tight trading range for several years.
From a technical perspective, these periods of low volatility can often precede major price movements. In other words, when the bands are narrow, it suggests that an upside or downside breakout is imminent as the market shifts back to higher volatility.
For example, XRP’s BBW was the tightest during the 2016-2017 session, with the price moving flat within the $0.0050-0.0090 range. This was followed by a 66,000% price breakout, and as the BBW readings show, XRP’s monthly volatility rose from 66.50 to a high of 982.22.
This time, XRP’s consolidation lasted twice as long as in 2016-2017, and the monthly volatility was much lower. As a result, some analysts, including Tony Severino, expect a major price breakout in the XRP market.
Can XRP Repeat Its 60,000% Rally?
On a monthly basis, XRP’s current value is around $0.62, close to the middle of the Bollinger Bands. This positioning near the middle band generally reflects balanced market forces, with no strong bullish or bearish momentum.
XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading is around 53, reflecting the same neutral sentiment in the market.
Nonetheless, XRP/USD is trading above the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting that the market is slightly tilted to the bulls. Combined with the similarity to the Bollinger Band contraction in the 2016-2017 session, this indicator raises the possibility of another significant price move.
What’s interesting is that XRP’s massive symmetrical triangle could be hinting at the same thing, which is that if it forms after a strong price rally, it could indicate that the uptrend is about to continue.
The breakout target of the symmetrical triangle is obtained by measuring the maximum distance between the upper and lower trend lines and adding it to the breakout point. Applying the same to the monthly chart of XRP, the upside target would be $14.75, which is approximately 2,200% up from the current price levels.
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From a fundamental perspective, the possible narratives that could accompany XRP’s upward move include the possibility of a re-election of Donald Trump, which could lead to more crypto-friendly regulations in the US, and the potential resolution of the SEC-Ripple lawsuit.
However, it could take several months for the XRP breakout scenario to materialize, most likely after the triangle’s upper and lower trendlines converge in August 2025. A decisive break below the lower trendline in the meantime risks invalidating the long-term bullish scenario.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.