Former US President Donald Trump leads the blockchain-based betting market at nearly 67% as mystery whales continue to bet on his victory in the upcoming presidential election on November 5.
Trump’s odds of winning the upcoming presidential election topped 66.3% on Oct. 28 on a major decentralized prediction market, according to data from Polymarket.
2024 presidential election winner, 1 month chart. Source: Polymarket
Trump’s odds have improved after a polymarket whale, or large holder, invested an additional $2 million worth of USD Coin (USDC) tokens in a pro-Trump bet.
According to on-chain intelligence firm Lookonchain, the mystery whale spent a total of $7.22 million on “Yes” stock, X wrote in an Oct. 28 post.
“Since October 11, whales have spent $7.22 million to purchase 11.28 million shares of ‘Yes’ stock on Donald Trump’s US election victory, with unrealized profits of $256,000.”
With just seven days left until the 2024 US presidential election, decentralized prediction markets could provide more accurate predictions than traditional voting systems, according to billionaire Elon Musk.
Polymarket odds showed a sharp reversal starting in September, swinging in Trump’s favor on October 4th. Cointelegraph reported that as of October 12, Trump was ahead by more than 10 points.
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The mysterious Polymarket whale appears to be unrelated to “Fredi9999”
The mysterious Polymarket whale known as “zxgngl” has more than 11.2 million “yes” votes worth more than $7.5 million, according to Polymarket data.
Zxgngl, Polymarket whale, location. Source: Polymarket
This increase in positions comes after PolyMarket’s top Trump bettor, “Fredi9999,” purchased $20 million worth of “Yes” stock through October 18, boosting Trump’s odds by more than 60.2%.
Moreover, Fredi’s trading patterns suggest that he controls four of the six largest Trump voting accounts on Polymarket. These accounts were all funded with Kraken deposits of $1 million or $500,000 to immediately invest the funds depending on the Trump vote.
The best Trump gambler. Source: Polymarket
99% of zxgngl’s bets were on Trump, but their account was funded by Binance rather than the Kraken exchange. The trading patterns are also different, with the last two Binance deposits being worth $338,000 and $1.68 million respectively.
Zxgngl, Polymarket deposit. Source: Lookonchain
In Fredi’s case, the account is likely managed by someone with deep confidence in a Trump victory, according to Domer, an anonymous political gambler who told Cointelegraph:
“I think he’s a very rich man and a true believer willing to bet big. He is caught in a confirmation bias loop where he becomes more confident as prices go up, and new information continues to increase his confidence.”
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US Presidential Election Drives Prediction Market Growth by 565%
The upcoming US election has increased investor interest in prediction markets.
Betting volume on prediction markets increased by more than 565.4% in the third quarter, reaching $3.1 billion across the three largest markets. This is an increase from $463.3 million in the second quarter.
Top 3 Cryptocurrency Prediction Markets. Source: CoinGecko
According to an October 14 CoinGecko report, this significant growth in the third quarter is largely due to the upcoming U.S. election.
Polymarket, the most representative decentralized betting platform, dominates the market with a market share of over 99% as of September.
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