In an analysis published to his 280,000 X followers, the renowned cryptocurrency analyst known as Cold Blooded Shiller (@ColdBloodShill) provided an in-depth look at the current state of Bitcoin amidst a volatile market environment. His commentary, titled “Ultimate BTC Simple Bias Guide,” unpacks the recent emotional reactions triggered by Bitcoin price movements and provides a strategic framework for interpreting these changes.
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On Friday, the price of Bitcoin plummeted from $71,900 to $68,500. The decline coincides with the release of the U.S. Employment Situation Summary report, economic data that typically influences market sentiment across a variety of asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. “It’s easy to forget that it was one red candle on Friday that triggered a huge emotional response in the Twitter debate,” Shiller wrote, highlighting the often exaggerated emotional response to a single event in the cryptocurrency market.
Cold Blooded Shiller’s Bitcoin technical research shows a strong underlying upward trend despite recent price volatility. However, he identifies resistance and support levels that are important for understanding the future movement of the Bitcoin price.
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The $72,000 price level remains key resistance, having disrupted Bitcoin’s upward movement five times, including the most recent rejection last Friday. “We have resistance in the $72,000 range,” Shiller elaborates. This indicates that a break above this level could potentially lead to significant bullish momentum.
Conversely, the support level at $67,000 and later at $61,000 are described as important to sustain the bullish scenario. Shiller warns, “BTC should maintain its upward trend. A loss of $67,000 would confirm the Lower High (LH) and send it into a downward trend once again as negative market conditions continue.” According to him, a further loss of $61,000 could signal the end of the current bull cycle, which could extend into a broader weekly downtrend.
Analyzing the broader market dynamics, Shiller points out that there is no high time frame (HTF) bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a common indicator used to predict potential market reversals. “Positively, there is no HTF bare div, which would normally be a strong signal for a cycle top. “We said the RSI was clean,” he says. These observations suggest that despite testing critical resistance levels, the market may not have yet reached its cyclical peak, which provides some reassurance to investors concerned about a potential recession.
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Shiller’s guidance for traders is to carefully watch the key price levels that determine Bitcoin’s near-term market direction. “Daily needs to hit a new high and break $72,000. Otherwise, you risk losing the daily trend below $67,000,” he advises, emphasizing the importance of these thresholds in shaping market sentiment and trading strategies. This advice suggests that while the broader trend may still support a bullish stance, it is important to be prepared to pivot based on key technical indicators.
In light of these observations, Shiller advises his followers to use these insights to strategically manage their investment portfolios. The current market situation, characterized by attempts to break the $72,000 resistance and hold key lower levels, suggests a tactical approach to investment decisions. Traders and investors are advised to set clear indicators for adjusting their positions and prepare for potential changes in market dynamics that could affect investment results.
At press time, BTC was trading at $69,484.
Featured image created with DALL·E, TradingView.com chart