- There was evidence of whale accumulation based on XRP supply distribution.
- Social indicators and network activity showed that the bulls are unlikely to have the strength to make a comeback.
Ripple (XRP) has been trading in a 10-month range and has been at the bottom of that range since mid-April. As a result, Open Interest remains uninspired. The whale continued to accumulate tokens regardless.
A recent AMBCrypto report explored the possibility of a bullish trend change. The decline in supply on exchanges suggested accumulation, but may not be enough for a recovery.
Social media engagement has declined
Source: Santiment
Three-day interval aggravation hearings have been negative for most of the past month. April was positive despite falling below the median support level of $0.58.
Since then, this enthusiasm has waned. Bearish participation is starting to dominate.
There has been no significant change in social volume trends since early April, but it has decreased compared to March. This was understandable, as the hype around altcoins died down and price movements subsided.
Source: Santiment
A look at the supply distribution shows that almost all XRP holders are selling, except for the largest group with over 10 million tokens. On the other hand, holders with less than 1 XRP also trended higher.
This finding is consistent with previous reports of whale accumulation and a decline in XRP supply on exchanges ready for sale. While this was a positive sign, the lack of holder confidence among small wallets over the past two months may be concerning.
A decline in average coin age could be bad news in the short term.
Source: Santiment
The trend of development activity has been steady. However, the amount of activity is very low at 2.5 people at the time of reporting and 4.67 people, the highest in March. For comparison, Ethereum (ETH) is 48.7 and Cardano (ADA) is 62.9.
Daily active addresses trended downward with sporadic increases in activity.
Realistic or not, the market cap of XRP in BTC terms is:
Average coin age has been trending very high over the past six weeks, but has declined over the past few days, suggesting a large-scale movement of previously dormant tokens.
Overall, XRP bulls have a tough fight ahead. Similar to previous cycles, the token may remain dormant for most of the bull market before waking up to post triple-digit percentage gains during the final two months.