Bitcoin (BTC) has surged more than 60% as of May 2024 compared to the beginning of the year, thanks to capital inflows into newly introduced exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
According to a mix of on-chain, fundamental and technical indicators, the benchmark cryptocurrency could witness further gains in June, potentially reaching $75,000 by the end of the month. Let us discuss these indicators in detail.
Bitcoin is getting closer to breaking the symmetrical triangle.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s ability to reach $75,000 stems from the typical symmetrical triangle pattern characterized by price consolidation between two converging trend lines connecting a series of consecutive highs and lows.
Typically, the formation of a symmetrical triangle during an uptrend signals a continuation of a bullish trend and is resolved when the price breaks the upper trendline and rises by the maximum distance between the upper and lower trendlines.
As of May 31, the price of BTC is close to the peak of the triangle where the two trend lines converge. The cryptocurrency is now expected to cross the upper trend line, which could push the price to $74,000-$75,000 in June, depending on the breakout point, according to the technical rules mentioned above.
This breakout point could be around $69,000, a level consistent with Bitcoin’s continued upward trendline support (magenta line).
Bitcoin ETF buyers return
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of about $73,000 in early March. This surge coincided with long-term holders selling off significant amounts of their holdings, creating a supply glut that led to a period of correction and consolidation.
As prices fell and sellers ran out, the market gradually shifted into a repurchase phase.
This change is evident in Bitcoin ETF flows, which showed net outflows throughout April. While the market sold off to local lows of around $57,500, the ETF experienced significant net outflows averaging $148 million per day.
This period of outflow represented a kind of micro capitulation, but the trend has since reversed sharply.
Last week, the Bitcoin ETF reported a surprising net inflow of $242 million per day, indicating a resurgence in buy-side demand. Considering that miners’ natural daily selling pressure after the recent Bitcoin halving was $32 million per day, this ETF’s buying pressure is almost eight times greater.
This highlights the significant upside that ETFs have on the market and the relative decline in the impact of future halvings. As a result, Bitcoin price is well-positioned to continue its upward trend into June.
Ethereum ETF approval likely in June
A U.S. spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) has a “legitimate chance” of launching by the end of June, analysts said, following a key filing update from BlackRock.
On May 29, BlackRock updated its Form S-1 for iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, nearly a week after the regulator approved its 19b-4 filing. Both approvals are required for the ETF to begin trading.
“This is a good sign. We’ll probably see the rest coming in soon,” Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote in a post to X on May 29.
The successful launch of the Ethereum ETF could set a positive precedent for the Bitcoin ETF, potentially boosting investor confidence and increasing demand in the cryptocurrency market. This could help Bitcoin achieve its symmetrical triangle breakout target of $75,000 in June.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.