Analysts have lowered the probability of Ethereum ETF approval to 35%.

In a recent shift in perspective, Bloomberg analysts significantly lowered their forecast for an Ethereum spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) to be approved by May. The probability is only 35%.

According to Eric Balchunas, the odds are: down sharply Previous estimates put it between 60% and 70%.

The amendments reflect growing skepticism about regulatory approval for an Ethereum ETF, in contrast to the previously more optimistic stance.

No signs of activity

The caution among analysts follows recent discussions between Coinbase, Grayscale, and the SEC regarding the possibility of converting Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust into an ETF. Such meetings can typically indicate a positive trajectory, but the lack of follow-up SEC commentary has tempered expectations.

Balchunas and other analysts, including James Seyffart and Eleanor Terret, said there was a distinct lack of activity from regulators despite the deadline still being two months away.

In contrast, there was a flurry of activity between the SEC and spot Bitcoin ETF issuers for more than 10 weeks before the application was approved.

Seifart said:

“This Ethereum ETF cycle currently feels like it is going against the odds of Bitcoin ETF approval. “The more we see/hear (and the less we see/hear), the less optimistic I become.”

But analysts added that activity could accelerate in the coming days. They also said there still remain expectations that the ETH ETF will be approved sometime this year, if not in May.

cautiously hope

Despite these lowered expectations, some industry observers, such as Variant Fund’s chief legal officer, Jake Cherbinskimaintain cautiously optimisticThis suggests that the coming weeks could provide a clearer signal of the SEC’s direction.

However, he also raised concerns that the SEC could treat Ethereum like a security and would not approve the application without judicial intervention.

The overall sentiment appears to be leaning towards skepticism, with major investment banks such as JPMorgan and TD Cowen also predicting approval will not be possible until May.

Unlike Bloomberg analysts, cryptocurrency market-making firm GSR initially remained more hopeful, estimating a 70% chance of approval.

However, the company recently acknowledged that this optimism could soon fade if no notable progress is made in the coming months.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered has stated several times that the SEC is likely to approve the Ethereum ETF in May.

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