Bitcoin price briefly peaked near $70,600 yesterday before falling 1.5% today to below $68,000. The decline comes as Mt. Bitcoin, the once-dominant Bitcoin exchange that collapsed in 2014. This is according to the latest report that Gox has started processing long-awaited payments to creditors. The release of about 75,000 bitcoins worth more than $5.1 billion has sparked concerns about potential market liquidity and price stability.
Mt. Gox wallet, transfer Bitcoin and BCH
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, a leader in the cryptocurrency sector, said Mt. We provided real-time updates on Bitcoin movements related to Gox payments. Initially, Thorn reported a transfer of approximately 25,000 BTC. “Mt. Approximately 25,000 BTC on Gox has moved in the past hour, which appears to have begun distribution to creditors. (…) I personally expect most BTC to be held, but the same cannot be said for BCH,” Thorn commented, indicating a differential impact on Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.
Soon after, the movement quickly escalated. Thorn’s updates continued. “16.5K BTC just moved, bringing the total to 42.9K BTC ($2.9 billion) as of tonight.” Subsequent large transfers were also noted. “Another 32.1k BTC just moved. The total as of tonight is 75,000 BTC ($5.1 billion). Everyone 1Jbez… Got to APs6 address. You can also consolidate before moving to a creditor custodian (Bitgo, Kraken, Bitstamp).”
Another 32.1k BTC just moved. As of tonight, the total stands at 75,000 BTC ($5.1 billion).
Everyone 1Jbez… Got to APs6 address. Perhaps you could even do a consolidation before moving to a creditor custodian (bitgo, kraken, bitstamp).
— Alex Thorne (@intangiblecoins) May 28, 2024
The potential impact of such a large-scale Bitcoin move on the market has been the subject of much speculation. Matt Walsh, general partner at Castle Island VC, said Mt. Discussed strategic purchase of Gox claims. “Many SPV capital purchase claims have been made with the intention of holding BTC (in-kind distribution mechanism). I agree with your comments about B-cash. Nonetheless, my napkin calculation still leaves about 65,000 BTC left to be handed over to individual creditors,” Walsh said.
In response to Walsh, Thorn pointed out the speculative nature of these estimates. “But there are some assumptions made in those numbers,” he said, implying that it is difficult to predict accurate market outcomes from these distributions.
The behavior of creditors receiving these payments is also scrutinized. X user Dickie Emerson objected to the assumption that most would hold Bitcoin. “I have no idea why you think most BTC is held. These were forced hodlers. They will get a big paycheck that they wouldn’t have had if they had never been locked out (they would have sold it by now).”
To defend his previous statements, Thorn detailed why some creditors may decide not to sell their Bitcoin immediately. “There are several reasons to believe they will hold. Notable long-term investors make up many of our creditors. You get a huge payout in dollar terms (capped up), but only a 15% recovery in BTC terms.”
Thorn also said that many creditors had been offered to sell their claims, but had declined to do so, instead indicating their intention to hold on to the coins. “And the average individual creditor only gets back about 3.23 BTC. Would you like to dump 3 BTC now? Or do you want something higher? No doubt there is a lot of speculation on my part. Even a small percentage of sales can move the market,” Thorn added.
Confirmation through on-chain analysis
James “Checkmatey” Check, a highly regarded on-chain analyst behind the observation of large-scale movements, confirmed the unfolding events. “It looks like Mt Gox distribution is finally underway. As we speak, there are approximately 42.9k BTC in motion, worth approximately $2.94 billion. Congratulations to your creditors. It will be a relief to get these coins back. “It’s a really great story.”
It appears that Mt Gox distribution is finally underway.
About 42.9k $BTC It’s moving as we speak, and is worth about $2.94 billion.
Congratulations to your creditors. It will be a relief to get these coins back. What a great story. https://t.co/HQCYGhloo9 pic.twitter.com/O8nRqfQwn6
— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️(@_Checkmatey_) May 28, 2024
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, also confirmed the transfer. “Mt. Leaks from Gox addresses continue. Now, in the last few hours a total of 42,829 Bitcoins have been deposited on Mt. Leaked from Gox address. All coins have been transferred to the new address 1JbezDVd9VsK9o1Ga9UqLydeuEvhKLAPs6.”
The latest development marks a significant milestone in the long history of Mt. Gox, which once processed 70% of all Bitcoin transactions before collapsing in 2014. The exchange’s downfall began when withdrawals were halted due to a security breach, resulting in losses of around $200 million. 800,000 Bitcoin.
After a lengthy legal and administrative process, the latest move suggests creditors are finally closing in on closure, although it introduces new variables into a volatile market.
At press time, BTC was trading at $67,865.
Featured image created with Zipmex, chart from TradingView.com