Popular trader Peter Brandt has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) is taking longer than ever to reach new all-time highs following the recent halving.
In a recent analysis for X, Brandt found that Bitcoin’s pre-2021 all-time high still holds when accounting for inflation.
Brandt: Bitcoin Suffering from ‘Energy Shortage’
BTC price action has disappointed investors and discouraged new investors since the US dollar’s all-time highs recorded in mid-March.
Not only has the market not reached the $73,800 level since Brandt pointed out, but it has also been a record amount of time since the latest block subsidy halving in April that the price has not recovered.
“I measure cycles differently than most people,” he explained, noting the subtle differences between BTC price cycles between macro highs and lows and halvings.
“My cycle starts at the previous bear market low (Nov’22). Then I take the high of the cycle starting at the previous low (Mar’24) before the halving. Not only has that high not been breached, but on an inflation adjusted basis, it is still the high of the previous bull cycle.”
source: Peter Brandt
This perspective lends additional weight to the 2021 high of $69,000, which would be a strong resistance if BTC/USD sustains its recovery.
However, in a later discussion, Brandt stressed that this does not mean that Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since then.
BTC Price Downturn and Depression Surpass Fed Funds Rate Cut
Some see Bitcoin in for a rough ride this month, too.
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Despite the expected start of US monetary easing, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant suggests that BTC price action this week will be “disappointing.”
“A short-term rebound on positive market sentiment is expected ahead of the expected September 18 Fed rate cut, but unless there is a significant turnaround in market sentiment, the disappointing run is likely to continue into 2024,” contributor Crypto Dan wrote in a Quicktake blog post.
“It is unfortunate that the frustrating situation continues, but it seems necessary to have a long-term perspective and patience and wait until 2025.”
As Cointelegraph reported, one prediction projects that the Bitcoin price could drop by up to 20% if the Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts interest rates in September.
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