Bitcoin (BTC) had its most successful September in the last decade, surpassing $60,000 in the fourth quarter.
BTC price action has joined US stock price action, sparking an impressive recovery from early August lows.
Can the good times continue with the classic ‘Uptober’?
Although BTC/USD entered the new month with a sigh rather than a bang, the base is undoubtedly poised to attack the all-time high of $73,800 as well as upward resistance.
August BTC price crash canceled
At 0.96%, Bitcoin’s third quarter performance may not be very impressive, but its recovery from its lowest point in six months is notable.
BTC/USD quarterly returns (screenshot) Source: Coinglass
On a quarterly basis, BTC/USD has barely moved regardless of volatility catalysts, ultimately providing a stable store of value.
However, in the third quarter, Bitcoin fell below $50,000, the lowest level in half a year.
The BTC price rout that occurred in early August due to macroeconomic instability centered on Japan was resolved within a few weeks. The market had fully recovered from the shock by the September monthly close.
It was a similar story for US stocks, which recovered on their own and hit record highs.
“As the third quarter comes to a close, both stocks and Bitcoin have defied the typical decline in September and performed better than expectations,” trading team QCP Capital said in a recent bulletin for Telegram channel subscribers on September 30. He summarized it as follows.
QCP noted that the S&P’s 5.1% rise in the third quarter marked its best performance since the late 1990s.
“This stock-led rally could be tested when third-quarter earnings begin in mid-October when traders will reassess current high valuations,” he acknowledged.
“We expect Bitcoin to benefit from any stock retracement due to its nature as a risk asset amid global monetary easing.”
‘Uptober’ is here
Going forward, expectations for risk assets are indeed high. Historical precedent suggests that October, informally known as “Uptober,” will offer significant upside.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin saw an average gain of nearly 23% in October.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot) Source: Coinglass
“A similar increase would push the number past 78,000, a new all-time high,” QCP said in another bulletin.
Meanwhile, skeptics must contend with BTC price consolidation that has persisted for more than six months, following record highs in March and the block subsidy halving in April. Analysts argue that this has been long enough and that history has shown that a breakthrough is now possible.
“BTC has been trading in the 60,000-70,000 range for eight months now. Will Uptober finally be the month to make it big?” QCP asked a question.
“Markets are considering this possibility, especially with the US elections just around the corner. Spot ETF inflows continue to remain positive, and perpetual funding is approaching levels reminiscent of the first quarter bull market.”
While institutional interest in Bitcoin, as measured by inflows into US ETFs and other products, is increasingly evident, there are also small signs that retail investors are returning to the market.
Relaxation, stimulation and fluidity
Fueling the risky asset trend is the growing global easing of financial policies by central banks, now including both the US and China.
relevant: Bitcoin’s all-time high target remains as BTC price bounces back to $64,000.
In September, the Federal Reserve made a surprise interest rate cut of 0.5%. Markets expect a repeat of this cut in November, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Fed target interest rate probability. Source: CME Group
Meanwhile, China has embarked on a massive stimulus package in a move that continues to heighten the risk-on mood.
“In a matter of days, China went from fear of a severe recession to posting its biggest one-day stock market rally since 2008,” trading resource Kobeissi Letter wrote in part in a response to X.
“There’s so much stimulus, there’s so much demand, brokerages are collapsing.”
When it comes to Bitcoin, Jamie Coutts, chief cryptocurrency analyst at Real Vision, believes the writing is on the wall.
He summarized in an October 1
Bitcoin is traditionally correlated with global liquidity conditions.
BTC/USD and global M2 money supply (screenshot). Source: Lynn Alden
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.