- FET remained flat in October but continued to consolidate on the rise.
- Now, when the right conditions match, a breakthrough occurs.
Markets were abuzz with post-election hype as investors diversified to mitigate risk. This pushed Bitcoin (BTC) to a new all-time high of $77,000. AI tokens have also been rewarded, recording impressive weekly returns, with many recording double-digit increases.
However, the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) remained consolidated despite a 15% rise this week. At press time, it was trading at $1.42, still below the $2 target.
Normally, a rally like the current one would be a catalyst for FET to break out of a four-month slump. However, slow performance caught AMBCrypto’s attention.
Is the FET set to bounce?
Interestingly, FET has been declining since October. Despite Bitcoin’s 5% gain to end the month near $72,000, it had little impact on FET’s price movement.
One contributing factor was the memecoin-led ‘supercycle’, which saw massive liquidity flowing into meme-based tokens. DOGE, for example, recorded an impressive daily gain of 11%.
Unlike previous cycles, this cycle is characterized by a more balanced capital allocation. Small-cap tokens are also seeing double-digit gains, according to CoinMarketCap data, a trend that FET bulls could aim to capitalize on.
Source: Coinglass
As can be seen from the on-chain data, since mid-June the FET bulls have made four attempts to break the $0.17 resistance and have entered an accumulation phase.
About a month ago, investors withdrew about $11 million worth of FET tokens from exchanges. This helped keep the FET within a stable range and mitigate potential pullbacks.
However, despite these aggressive acquisitions, the expected impact on FET prices has not yet been realized.party Influences that can disrupt bullish momentum.
Short bias can derail a rally
In addition to inconsistent order book activity from large holders, breakouts in FET are largely dependent on derivatives markets, which have a pronounced bias toward short selling.
Since October, short selling has dominated the FET futures market and served as an important resistance factor.
But there is a twist here. If market momentum changes against you, large short positions can quickly reverse. And there is no better time than now.
Source: Coinglass
As mentioned earlier, investors were diversifying their portfolios, with many focusing on small-cap tokens. This trend is especially noteworthy as BTC approaches the high-risk zone.
Read Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) price forecast for 2024-2025
Spot traders targeting the downside may find this a bullish signal, but not enough to induce a breakout. This requires avoiding large holders offloading their positions.
This will allow strong buying to trigger a short squeeze and set the stage for a bullish rebound.
In other words, FET has the ingredients for a potential breakout. If RSI is neutral, a few alignment conditions could push FET above the $0.17 resistance and put it on track toward the $2 target.