Cardano (ADA) has suffered as one of the worst cryptocurrencies of 2024, losing more than 40% of its current value in the year to October.
But November brought a quick turnaround, with ADA wiping out nearly six months of losses in just one week. It is now targeting a price increase of more than 100% by March 2025.
ADA boom amid Hoskinson-Trump rumors
On November 10, Cardano’s price rose more than 20%, returning to its April high of $0.597.
The cryptocurrency’s rise is part of a broader cryptocurrency market rally, largely following the re-election of pro-crypto US presidential candidate Donald Trump on November 6.
However, the intraday rally was notable due to rumors that Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson could join the Trump administration in 2025.
source: X
That doesn’t seem to be the case though. In a recent YouTube live stream, Hoskinson mentioned that he would be setting up an office to communicate with government officials, but did not mention that he had received an official invitation from the incoming Trump administration to join their cryptocurrency policy department.
relevant: Charles Hoskinson shares a new plan to help foster U.S. cryptocurrency policy.
As of November 10, Trump has not officially announced the formation of a policy group dedicated to cryptocurrencies, indicating that the intraday pump in the ADA is mainly due to excessive speculation about a Hoskinson-Trump collaboration.
Despite risks, ADA price could double
The rise in the price of ADA has pushed the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) to its most overbought level since December 2023, suggesting that the market is overheating and profit-taking is inevitable going forward.
ADA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
As of November 10, ADA is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around $0.599 as resistance, with a potential decline increasing the likelihood of a fall into the 0.5-0.382 Fib level area, consistent with the $0.548-0.489 range by the end of November.
A decline into the $0.548-$0.489 range would represent a retest of the recently broken multi-year downtrend line, as seen in the weekly chart below.
ADA/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
Successful support at this level could confirm a breakout and provide the foundation for further upward momentum. If this happens, ADA could test the 0.786 Fib line at around $0.65 as resistance through December.
Beyond this level, Cardano price is likely to head towards the 0.618 Fib line at around $1.139 in Q1 2025. That means a 105% price rally will occur in early 2025.
Conversely, failure to hold the massive descending trendline resistance could indicate a false breakout and lead to a deeper retracement towards the rising trendline support around $0.350.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.