Bitcoin (BTC) closed every day at $ 80,688 on March 9 and is the lowest melee since November 11, 2024.
Bitcoin also lowered the 200-day index movement average (200-D EMA) in two weeks, dropping additional high-time frames (HTF) weaknesses on the chart.
Bitcoin 1 day chart. Source: COINTELEGRAPH/TradingView
Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to show “extreme fear” on March 10, but a BTC market simulation still emphasizes the strong prediction of late 2025.
The MONTE CARLO model signals 800% BTC prices.
Mark Quant, a crypto researcher, performed the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the price of Bitcoin and provide a six -month prediction of Crypto assets.
The MONTE CARLO model is a calculation method that uses any sampling to simulate price forecasts and evaluate risks. You can create a number of possible scenarios based on variable elements such as volatility and market trends.
Bitcoin Monte Carlo Projections Mark Quant. Source: x.com
Based on the initial price of $ 82,655, the study estimates the average final price of $ 258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, the price is expected to fluctuate between $ 51,430, that is, the fifth percentile return and the 95th percentage of $ 713,000.
Related: Is Bitcoin a 3% slide -BTC price for $ 690,000 next?
However, it should be noted that the MONTE CARLO model depends greatly on the GBM (Geometric Brownian Motion) model. This assumes that the asset value follows any path with a constant parameter drift.
In this analysis, Bitcoin’s unique volatility is built into the model and adapts to the shift in the future by capturing long -term historical performance and patterns. In essence, Monte Carlo analysis is as suitable as “rolling the dice.”
Last week, QUANT also emphasized the correlation between the total cryptographic market cap and the global liquidity index, indicating that the total market cap value could exceed $ 4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.
Bitcoin Eyes $ 80K Re -tested and new CME gap
Bitcoin prices fell 6.38% over the weekend, creating a new CME gift difference on the chart. The CME Bitcoin futures gap describes the difference in price that resumed CME Bitcoin futures on Friday and resumed on Sunday evening.
Bitcoin CME gap. Source: COINTELEGRAPH/TradingView
As you can see on the chart, the CME gap is currently from $ 83,000 to $ 86,000, and the large gap is $ 3,000. Based on the past behavior, Bitcoin tends to be “filled” in these gaps at this interval in a higher time frame chart where seven intervals have been filled over the last four months.
Technical analyst MARK CULLEN also emphasized the CME gap that dominates the weekend, and speculated that the US market was on the market on March 10, but the merchant added.
“There is a difference from 70K every week to 80K.”
Related: Bitcoin Bull Case, but other metrics problem: Analyst: Analyst:
This article does not include investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading measures include risks, and the reader must do his own research when making a decision.