The market rally in the altcoin sector, also known as altseason, could be delayed until 2025, depending on the key price levels of the world’s two largest cryptocurrencies.
According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom Fund, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) need to reclaim key psychological levels for the altcoin sector to begin a bullish rally.
Hayes wrote in a research note on August 12:
“Alt szn will only come back after Bitcoin and Ether break $70,000 and $4,000 respectively. (…) A rally in Bitcoin and Ether by the end of the year, supported by dollar liquidity, will provide a solid foundation for the sexy shitcoin party to return.”
Bitcoin and Ether prices are recovering after last week’s $510 billion cryptocurrency market selloff, which sent both cryptocurrencies to February lows.
Bitcoin fell below $63,000, undercutting its main post-halving growth trajectory, but it has since recovered its trendline by the end of 2024, bringing Bitcoin back to the $100,000 range based on previous Bitcoin halving cycles.
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Hayes said the next step for Bitcoin’s price is $100,000.
The growth trajectory after the halving is consistent with Hayes’ prediction, who also expects Bitcoin to break $100,000 during this cycle.
Hayes writes that this will be facilitated primarily by the issuance of US Treasury bills (T-bills), which could inject new liquidity into the cryptocurrency markets.
“So, to paraphrase Bad Gurl Yellen, we know that between now and the end of the year, there will be $301 billion in net Treasury issuance. If that relationship holds true, Bitcoin will quickly reverse its losses due to the strong yen. The next stop for Bitcoin is $100,000.”
However, Bitcoin is currently struggling to break above the psychological threshold of $60,000 as Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows continue to slump.
According to Farside Investors data, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $27.8 million worth of BTC as of August 12, but by August 9, cumulative inflows had surpassed $89 million.
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Will Solana Price Hit $250 During Next Altcoin Season?
The Solana (SOL) token is currently the world’s fifth largest cryptocurrency and could rise to $250 during the next altcoin season.
Hayes said that if Bitcoin breaks the psychological threshold of $70,000, investment in Solana could also increase.
“Solana will also go up to $250+, but the overall wealth effect of the Solana pump on crypto markets is not as strong as it is for Bitcoin and Ethereum given their relative market caps.”
However, Solana’s price is currently down 42% from its all-time high of $259 in November 2021, three years ago.
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