The recent volatility of Bitcoin (BTC) emphasizes the overreation of the market in a situation where the market can escalate like the trade war. The 6.5% decrease in S & P 500 may seem trivial under absolute conditions, but potential import impacts are more important. However, the derivatives market suggests that the dip of less than $ 83,000 in Bitcoin should have a short life.
Traders tend to sell their assets when they feel the economic downturn. Investors are currently moving to cash and short -term government bonds. The shift explains why the US two -year financial yield was the lowest in the last five months. Merchants are willing to accept lower returns, showing powerful purchasing interest.
US two -year financial yield (left) vs. bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / COINTELEGRAPH
Despite the rejection of $ 99,500 on February 21, the Bitcoin derivatives market indicates that whales and market manufacturers do not expect further reductions. More importantly, even if the US strategic Digital Asset Reserve, which has been designated, does not secure parliamentary approval, it still has strong political driving power at the state level and keeps the initiative.
Bitcoin 2 -month gift annual premium. Source: LAevitas.ch
Bitcoin FutureS maintained an annual premium of 6.5%compared to the spot market as of March 4, and has not changed with the previous week. This metrics remain within the 5% to 10% neutral, observed over the last four weeks. This shows that the recent volatility shows that professional traders are constantly and expresses confidence in market stability.
Bitcoin 30 Days option DELTA SKEW (PUT-CALL). Source: LAevitas.ch
Bitcoin Options 25% DELTA SKEW (PUT-CALL) stands 4% on March 4 and reflects the balance between PUT (SELL) and Call options. If attempts to regain $ 94,000 in support on March 3 have failed, low demand for protection invests in signal elasticity among investors.
Deep of less than $ 83,000 in Bitcoin reflects macroeconomic uncertainty.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, a US Senator, predicted that the state would strategically prepare Bitcoin before the federal government. Utah’s HB230 “Revision of Blockchain and Digital Innovation” has already passed the House of Representatives, and if it is approved by the Senate, up to 5%of the state owner can assign up to 5%of the state’s holdings to Bitcoin through qualified managers or exchange transaction funds (ETFs).
However, the ability to restore the strength of Bitcoin’s strength is closely related to traditional market sentiment. Traders worry that the price of more than 20% of companies such as Tesla, TSM, Broadcom, and ARM has potentially affected the aging sector’s sales of the world’s largest company and reduces the appetite of investors in risky assets.
Investors are worried that US economic growth will slow down, which seems to be based on the actual GDP estimates of the Federal Federal Federation. If the US economy signs a contract more than 2% in the first quarter, the public listing company’s evaluation may fall sharply. At the same time, the higher the vacancy in commercial real estate, the more credit risk can be increased, which can cause serious pressure on the banking sector.
The recent decrease in bitcoin with less than $ 83,000 is actually not related to the success or failure of the US digital asset strategy reserve. Instead, investors are withdrawn with dangerous assets, such as artificial intelligence stocks and consumer cycle companies. On March 3, SPOT BITCOIN ETFS had a leak of $ 74 million and added uncertainty. Investors are worried that institutional demand will be weakened by reflecting a huge macro economic environment.
Bitcoin’s price is likely to remain less than $ 90,000 until the S & P 500 is finished. Reduce dangerous assets when investors are afraid of the recession. Nevertheless, Bitcoin derivatives data suggests that there is a lower risk of a greater fall.
This article is for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.