Bloomberg ETF analysts have reduced the chances of taking a position. Ethereum ETH
+3.27%
ETF approval increased to 30% in May.
“We have a 30% chance,” Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst, told The Block.
In January, Balchunas said there was a 70% chance it would be approved by May, while his colleague James Seyffart gave an estimate of 60-65%.
On March 8, Coinbase and Grayscale met with the SEC about potentially converting Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust into an ETF. At that time, Balchunas said I figured this would generally be a good sign. However, as far as he knows, the SEC has not yet commented on the issuer.
Preparing to lower the likelihood of Ethereum ETF approval
The past few months have dampened the expectations of those most confident that approval could be imminent. The main reason appears to be the failure to submit changes to the Bitcoin ETF ahead of its approval.
In January, cryptocurrency market-making firm GSR estimated the likelihood of approval at 70%. The company is still leaning in that direction and sees approval as likely, but research analyst Brian Rudick noted that estimates could change soon.
“One thing to note is that we are starting to see movement towards spot Bitcoin ETF applications (e.g. ETF seed issuers, ETF listings DTCC, etc.) in October for approval on January 10th. We have never seen this on spot Ethereum. “There is no ETF yet,” he said. “Perhaps the SEC and issuers have a playbook for Bitcoin that allows them to cut through the process, but if we don’t see positive progress in the next month, the chances of approval will be lower.”
Rudick noted that GSR still sees Ethereum ETF applications operating similarly to Bitcoin due to similar processing requirements for spot- and futures-based applications.
I’m looking for a sign
Jake Chervinsky, Variant Fund’s chief legal officer, expressed concern about the lack of progress and remained skeptical.
“To be clear, I am not saying there is *no* chance that a spot ETH ETF will be approved this year. “I just want to say that the general sentiment in the early to mid-bull market is to overestimate the likelihood of approval, weighing all political and strategic factors.” Chervinsky posted on X. “The good news is that in the coming weeks we will get more signals about which direction the SEC is leaning.”
“Remember that the SEC heralded its approval of spot BTC with all the work done on the details in the days leading up to the January deadline. “If we see those signs and don’t hear that report as the May 23 deadline approaches, that silence will speak volumes,” he added.
Likewise, investment banks JPMorgan and TD Cowen estimate that a spot Ethereum ETF will not be approved until May.
Update: Added comment from James Seyffart.
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