Bitcoin starts the new week with a full-blown bounce and a challenge for its all-time high.
Bitcoin (BTC) is up 12% for the week and shows little sign of slowing down as the final resistance level approaches.
Beyond is a return to price discovery, but after four months of consolidation, can the bulls finally get their way?
Analysts say how Bitcoin will move in the future depends on several factors. Institutional demand, selling pressure, geopolitical curves, and inflation are all expected to contribute to volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
On higher time frames, the situation remains bullish. After hitting an all-time high in March, BTC/USD is still retesting old highs as support.
However, day-to-day movements can easily turn emotions around in an instant, especially around important resistance zones where price is currently located.
Meanwhile, secretly, Bitcoin miners are preparing to exit the capitulation phase, which is traditionally a period where the price of BTC rises significantly.
Cointelegraph takes a closer look at the current situation as we enter a pivotal month for Bitcoin.
BTC Price Target Reaches New High Again
After what one analyst called a “very explosive move” last week, Bitcoin recorded an ideal weekly close above $68,000.
This comes after news emerged that US President Joe Biden would not run for re-election in November.
Despite the two-way volatility, BTC/USD hit its highest level since June 12 at $68,486, down just 7.75% from its all-time high, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Popular trader Skew summarized in his latest market update on X that “the bulls are looking very good so far.”
Skew called the weekly close “critical” and said $65,000 must remain as support on the upper time frames at least if bulls want to maintain control.
“Otherwise, if there is a clear market chase on the bid early in the week, $70,000-$80,000 becomes the target for liquidity (selling liquidity),” he added.
The analysis also covered the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals, which provide clear advance notice of an impending uptrend.
Keeping an eye on the Fibonacci extension levels, fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades made a similar prediction for possible BTC price targets.
He commented with the chart, “So far so good.”
“We’re still in a big range, but if we start to fall higher, the green box is the area I’ll be watching.”
US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) to be released as markets digest Biden’s departure
Biden’s announcement has given Bitcoin bulls new energy after a brief period of volatility, with markets solidifying their bets on a Republican victory.
The party’s presidential candidate, Donald Trump, has included a Bitcoin support position in his campaign platform. As Cointelegraph reported, Trump’s attempted assassination on July 13 is what led to the initial surge in Bitcoin’s price.
Now, with key U.S. inflation data out, attention is turning back to economic issues.
This is expressed in the form of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, known as the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
The PCE report is scheduled to be released on July 26, a day after the Q2 GDP and unemployment figures, so it could be a volatile weekend for risk assets and cryptocurrencies.
According to Kobeisi’s letter, “all eyes” are now on the PCE.
Part of the X thread read, “It’s going to be a big week with the July Federal Reserve meeting just 10 days away,” referring to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (FOMC) meeting where members of the Federal Reserve Board will decide whether to adjust interest rates.
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch tool reflect market expectations that rates are unlikely to move until the next FOMC meeting in September.
“More evidence of disinflation would help to boost expectations of a rate cut starting at the Fed’s September meeting,” trading firm Mosaic Asset added in the latest issue of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic, on July 21.
Bitcoin Miners Prepare to Exit in ‘Surrender’
The tough times for Bitcoin miners that began after the April block subsidy halving may be almost over.
The latest data from the Hash Ribbon metric, tracked by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, compares two iterations of the Bitcoin hashrate, signaling a recovery from a multi-month “capitulation” period.
These periods occur when the short-term hashrate is relatively low and are indicated by the hash ribbon when the 30-day moving average is below the 60-day moving average.
Looking back at Bitcoin’s history, these phases have been common, even in bull markets, but investors are most interested in how the BTC price recovers after these phases end.
As Cointelegraph reported, the last capitulation phase ended in August 2023, after which BTC/USD briefly fell to $25,000 before nearly doubling by the end of the year.
According to Glassnode data, the mining hashrate itself hit its highest level since early June last week, surpassing 690 exahashes per second (EH/s).
The ‘Coinbase Premium’ Returns This Week for Ether ETFs
This week marks another important moment in the cryptocurrency industry’s journey toward institutional adoption, but this time the focus is on the largest altcoin: Ether (ETH).
An Ethereum ETF is set to launch just six months after a spot Bitcoin ETF was launched in the US.
The impact on ETH price action is not yet known, but traders are bracing for volatility similar to what hit BTC/USD earlier this year.
“A number of spot ETFs are coming out in the coming days, making it easier for hedge funds and pensioners to buy ETH. ETFs have driven Bitcoin even higher. Will the same be true for ETH?” popular trader Zell asked in part of X’s post on the topic.
Despite the talk of ETFs, ETH/USD has remained relatively cool compared to Bitcoin, up about 4% last week compared to Bitcoin’s 7% gain.
Meanwhile, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain notable after a week of record results despite a pullback in U.S. stock markets.
Daan Crypto Trades has shown that this success is reflected in the so-called “Coinbase premium” – the difference in BTC prices on Coinbase, the largest US exchange.
“The Coinbase premium is back to a premium, which is generally healthy because it shows interest from US investors (and ETFs),” he summarized.
Bitcoin Bears “Go Quiet”
While calls for a BTC price crash have died down on social media this month, data shows just how far Bitcoin bears have lost their grip on market trends.
Related: Bullish Path Set for SOL, ICP, GRT, and BONK as Bitcoin Price Rise to $68,000
According to research firm Santiment, social volume for terms like “sell” and “bearish” is declining, but bulls are “afraid of getting ‘wrong’” with the price trajectory.
“After the somewhat surprising rally in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies over the past two weeks, the crowd has been quiet,” X wrote in a July 22 commentary.
“Those who were talking about an impending bear market in early July have virtually disappeared as BTC once again approaches $70,000.”
As the week began, cryptocurrency market sentiment remained in “greed” territory, measuring at 70/100 according to data from the classic sentiment indicator, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.