- Cryptocurrency assets are trading unchanged.
- Crypto traders appear to be erring on the side of caution ahead of a potentially market-impacting week.
- Despite concerns about near-term volatility, many expect the long-term trajectory of the market to remain the same.
Over the past few months, the US presidential election has probably been the most discussed issue globally outside of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and for good reason. That’s because it’s expected to be one of the most divisive and consequential polls in the country.
Some leaders, especially in the cryptocurrency space, have tried to frame the election as a choice between continued innovation and a slow, painful death through regulation. With just hours left until Election Day, market tensions are palpable. The situation is made even worse by the expected November 2024 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana Trade Flat
Crypto assets are trading flat ahead of the November 5 election and the FOMC meetings scheduled for November 6 and November 7.
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency asset by market capitalization, is trading just below the $69,000 price range, representing a change of less than 1% over the past 24 hours. This muted price action stands in stark contrast to last week’s price rally that saw the asset surge to an all-time high near $74,000.
Likewise, fellow market leaders Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are also flat with marginal gains of 0.62% and 0.03%, respectively, over the past 24 hours.
The muted price action suggests investors and traders are erring on the side of caution, anticipating increased market volatility in the fallout from this week’s events.
Despite fears of near-term volatility and the noise and rhetoric surrounding the election, many expect the long-term trajectory of the market to remain the same, at least in the case of Bitcoin.
Burgers that amount to nothing in the long run?
Ahead of the election, several analysts emphasized that they still expect Bitcoin to continue its upward momentum and eventually lock in the $100,000 price range. One such analyst is Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.
"I think the most important thing for Bitcoin is that the election happens. Regardless of a Trump win or a Harris win, the regulatory setting for bitcoin is improving, and I think that's what you're seeing reflected in the price,” Hougan told Yahoo Finance at the end of October 2024 as he expressed confidence that the asset's price was set to go beyond $100,000.
However, Hougan argued that the situation is more nuanced for altcoins, citing greater regulatory uncertainty.
“Those (altcoins) are more exposed to regulatory risks, so I would expect an altcoin rally, even more so than a Bitcoin rally in the event of a Trump win. But regardless, I think both are moving higher,” he asserted.
As of this writing, Polymarket odds give former President Donald Trump a 58.7% chance of winning the election, while Vice President Kamala Harris has a 41.3% chance. at the same time, CME FedWatch Tool It was predicted that there was a 99.8% probability that the Federal Reserve would decide to cut interest rates by 0.25% at the FOMC meeting.
On the flip side
- Expected market volatility is expected to be short-term.
- Bitcoin has historically experienced significant rallies following elections.
Why This Matters
Recent market price action highlights the consequential nature of the election and FOMC meeting for the cryptocurrency market.
To learn more about the cryptocurrency market, read:
Big losses in cryptocurrency markets: SOL and BNB sink quickly
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