Hodler’s Digest, December issue. 29th – January 4th – Cointelegraph Magazine

Top news of the week

Top 77% probability of US Solana ETF listing in 2025: VanEck Research Director

According to Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, the odds of Solana listing an exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. this year are much higher than the more optimistic forecasts of popular betting markets.

On January 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket announced that the probability of listing the U.S. Solana ETF in 2025 was about 77%. In a post on the X platform, Sigel described Polymarket’s forecast as “undervalued.”

Sigel’s optimism reflects industry-wide expectations for more cryptocurrency ETF listings in the U.S. following President-elect Donald Trump’s November election victory. Trump said he wanted to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.”

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts related to specific events, with prices dynamically fluctuating based on expected outcomes. According to its website, Polymarket’s projected ETF listing probability has increased to about 84% as of Jan. 2.

Terraform co-founder Do Kwon appears before a U.S. judge and pleads not guilty.

Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon will appear before a U.S. magistrate judge on January 2, 2025, where he pleaded not guilty to the charges in the first court hearing since the former technology executive was extradited to the United States.

The embattled cryptocurrency founder appeared in Manhattan on Thursday afternoon before U.S. Magistrate Judge Robert W. Leverger of the Southern District of New York, entered a plea and agreed to be held without bail.

The former technology executive is facing nine counts of various charges, including securities fraud, wire fraud, money laundering charges, and commodity fraud for his alleged role in the collapse of the Terra ecosystem.

A status conference is scheduled for January 8, 2025, for the defense and prosecution to share evidence and discuss motions leading to trial.

The hearing marks a milestone in the former tech executive’s legal saga, which has played out several times since 2023, as Montenegrin court officials weigh extradition of the Terraform co-founder to the United States or his native South Korea.

Memecoins will continue to lose market share to AI agent coins: Dragonfly VC

According to one venture capitalist, AI agent tokens will continue to outperform memecoins in 2025, but their momentum may weaken in 2026.

“Memecoin will continue to lose market share to ‘AI agent’ coins. I think this is a shift from financial nihilism to financial over-optimism,” Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital, said in a January 1 X post.

Qureshi said the “AI agent craze” will probably last until 2025, but not forever. As more advanced AI products emerge, people will lose interest in social media chatbots.

“You will die eventually. “This is not a long-term disruption to watch out for in AI, but it will be a fixture in CT because it is the most social,” he said.

AI agent chatbots have become popular in the cryptocurrency industry, providing insights and market price predictions to cryptocurrency users.

According to CoinMarketCap, over the past 24 hours, total MEMCOIN trading volume is down nearly 21.5%, while volume among the top AI and data tokens is up 7.95%.

China strengthens supervision of cryptocurrency trading with new foreign exchange rules

China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange has introduced regulations requiring the country’s banks to monitor and flag risky transactions involving cryptocurrency assets.

On December 31, the South China Morning Post reported that new regulations in mainland China would make it more difficult for residents to purchase digital assets.

Regulations require banks to monitor and report risky foreign exchange trading activities. This includes cross-border gambling, underground banking, and illegal cross-border financial activities involving cryptocurrency assets.

Chinese regulators also require banks to track activity based on the identity of the individuals and institutions involved, the source of funds and the frequency of transactions.

Liu Zhengyao, a lawyer at ZhiHeng Law Firm in Shanghai, said the new regulations would provide another basis for punishing cryptocurrency trading, adding that China’s regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies could continue to strengthen.

IRS Announces Temporary Relief for Changing Cryptocurrency Expense Methodology

The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has announced temporary relief from regulations that force cryptocurrency holders on centralized exchanges into less-than-ideal accounting practices.

The IRS’s initial ruling stated that if investors holding cryptocurrency assets with a CeFi broker do not select a preferred accounting method, such as Highest In, First Out (HIFO) or Specific Identification, the broker will default to reporting sales using the FIFO method. It is clearly stated.

FIFO, also known as “First In First Out,” is the primary method of calculating capital gains taxes in the United States. This is calculated by increasing the taxpayer’s capital gains by assuming that the cryptocurrencies purchased the longest are sold first.

“You don’t have to be stuck in FIFO like you used to,” Shehan Chandrasekera, head of tax strategy at Cointracker, said in a Dec. 31 X post.

Chandrasekera warned that immediately enforcing this rule could be “catastrophic” for many cryptocurrency taxpayers during a bull market.

winners and losers

Bitcoin this weekend (BTC) The price is $96,601, Ether. (ETH) for $3,448 XRP $2.42. According to CoinMarketCap, the total market capitalization is $3.4 trillion.

Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers this week are DeXe. (Dex) 59.13%, SPX6900 (SPX) 55.02% and Fartcoin (Partcoin) 41.76%.

The top three altcoin losers of the week are Bitget Token. (BGB) 15.94%, movement (move) 13.69% and Hyperliquid (hype) 12.73%. For more information on cryptocurrency prices, read Cointelegraph’s market analysis.

most memorable quotes

“With Dogecoin, what started as a satirical commentary on cryptocurrencies has evolved into a sophisticated market vertical attracting significant capital flows and institutional attention.”

DWF LabCryptocurrency venture capital firm

“Institutional adoption is expected to reach unparalleled levels, further fueled by significant inflows into US-based Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.”

Steno Researchindependent financial research firm

“While we cannot rule out the possibility of a new catalyst, we would not be surprised if Ethereum struggles to mount a meaningful rally next year.”

Marcus Thielen10xResearch CEO

“I think a few weeks of consolidation could set the stage for a major breakout. $131.5K+ by Q1 2025 feels inevitable. “See you there.”

Jason WilliamsEntrepreneurs and Investors

“Agents today can be easily manipulated to say nonsense that damages your brand, or they can be jailbroken and steal all your resources.”

Hasib QureshiDragonfly Capital Managing Partner

“Emerging narratives such as AI-based investing, decentralized AI agents, and tokenized assets imply a technology-driven shift, albeit with added risk.”

Alvin KahnBitget Wallet Chief Operating Officer

Predictions of the Week

Ethereum may struggle to stage a meaningful rally in 2025: 10x Research

Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, said that Ethereum may not be the wisest investment choice for the 2025 bull market as it could deliver underwhelming returns compared to Bitcoin.

Other analysts said they were waiting for more confirmation on the price chart to see which way it would go.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if Ethereum struggles to mount a meaningful rally next year, although we can’t rule out the possibility of a new catalyst,” Thielen said in a December 30 market report.

“While we appreciate the volatility of Ethereum, we believe it remains an underinvestment in the medium term and expect ETH to once again underperform BTC in 2025,” Thielen said. “As a result, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: avoid it.”

Thielen said one of the most important metrics to watch in 2025 will be the trend of active validators. Nonetheless, he noted that the growth rate of validators has turned negative, declining by about 1% over the past 30 days, raising concerns about an increased risk of more validators leaving the network.

FUD of the week

Cybertruck explosion at Trump hotel linked to bomb or fireworks: Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that a Tesla Cybertruck exploded due to a bomb or fireworks outside the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, and authorities are investigating it as a possible terrorist attack.

After confirming that Tesla was investigating the incident, Musk said in a follow-up post to At the time of the explosion.”

Police said the Cybertruck was filled with firework mortars, gasoline tanks and camping fuel.

Officials said the explosion injured seven people and did not confirm the identity of the driver of the Cybertruck, but that a joint investigation by federal, state and local authorities was working to identify suspects and determine if it was the act of someone else. terrorism.

“The results of the current investigation indicate that this was an isolated incident with no indication of a larger plan,” the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department wrote in a post to X.

Illegal cryptocurrency advertising rampant in UK despite FCA warning

Illegal cryptocurrency ads continue to appear in the UK, despite financial regulators asking cryptocurrency projects to remove ads targeting that country.

According to a Financial Times report, of the 1,702 warnings issued by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) between October 2023 and October 2024, 54% ended in the takedown of illegal cryptocurrency ads. The report states that the remaining cryptocurrency-related promotions are still ongoing.

The FCA has yet to fine companies for failing to remove cryptocurrency ads that violate the FCA’s rules. The regulations require that you obtain approval from the Financial Conduct Authority or an FCA-authorized entity before you begin promoting digital assets.

Featured Magazine Articles of the Week

How will cryptocurrency laws change globally in 2025?

Cryptocurrency companies are leaving Europe as regulations tighten, but with crypto-friendly regulators in place, the future is brighter in the United States.

I became an Ordinals RBF sniper to become rich… I lost most of my Bitcoin

I trained under the tutelage of a wise old Bitcoin RBF sniper and landed in the crossfire of the war between snipers and NFT marketplaces.

Pixels founder who fell to $200 one day, made $2.4 million the next day: Luke Barwikowski, X Hall of Flame

Luke Barwikowski said the early days of Pixels were spent working on a dairy farm, staying in a surf hostel and sailing in New Zealand.

subscribe

The most interesting read on blockchain. Delivered once a week.

editorial staff

Cointelegraph Magazine writers and reporters contributed to this article.