- Bitcoin (BTC) trades about $ 104.5K, down 2% a week in market uncertainty and tension in the Middle East.
- Cryptoquant warns that BTC will be able to return $ 92K or $ 81K if the demand continues to fall.
- GlassNode sees a “quiet” blockchain as a network maturity, and the institution leads the transmission of large -scale value.
Bitcoin (BTC) is constantly trading more than $ 104,500 as the Asian trading week began in earnest.
Despite the ominous background of potential upcoming wars in the Middle East, major cryptocurrencies remained relatively flat on that day due to the ignorant price movement.
According to the Coindesk Market data, Bitcoin is actually only 2%of Bitcoin over last week.
But this obvious calm promotes active debate among market analysts. Is this a sign of the fundamental force or is it more unstable under the surface?
The three new reports published by the prominent encryption analysis company this week draw a similar picture of the current surface conditions with the trading company Flowdesk: Low volatility, strict price behavior and conquered chain activity.
From Bitcoin ETF investors to massive “whales” holders, institutional players are also clearly remarkable in market epidemiology as institutional players, which are increasingly forming the structure of market flow, have weak retail participation.
But the most urgent thing is encryption.
In the June 19 report, the company argued that if Bitcoin continues to fall, Bitcoin can soon visit the level of $ 92,000 or fall to $ 81,000 potentially.
According to Cryptoquant, spot demand for Bitcoin is still increasing, but it is doing so much lower than the trend. The inflow of the Bitcoin ETF has fallen more than 60% since April, and during the same period, whale accumulation has dropped in half.
In addition, short -term holders, a new market participant, have shed about 800,000 BTC from the end of May.
Cryptoquant’s demand momentum indicator, which tracks the direction of the major investor cohort, is now reading 2 million BTC, the lowest level recorded in the company’s data set.
GlassNode ‘s CounterPoint: Mature network, not weakness
GlassNode reaches a much less terrible conclusion while acknowledging a similar warmth signal.
In the weekly chain update, the company admits that the Bitcoin block chain is now “quiet”. In other words, the number of transactions is reduced, the network fee is minimized, and the minor revenue has been conquered.
But GlassNode argues that this does not necessarily mean the weakness, but instead it can reflect the continuous evolution of the network.
They point out that the hotint settlement is still high, but it is more and more concentrated in large -scale transmission.
This suggests that Bitcoin blockchain is gradually used by institutions and whales for significant transactions rather than a smaller and more everyday retail activities.
In addition, GlassNode is dwarfing the derivative market, and futures and optional volume regularly exceed the spot market volume of 7 to 16 times.
They argued that this change has brought about more sophisticated hedging strategies, better mortgage management practices, and overall mature market structures.
The injury of cryptocurrency financial firms: new financial engineering?
According to the new report of Presto Research, CTC (Crypto Treasury Companies) such as the Crypto Treasury Companies (current strategy) and Japan’s Metaplanet, while adding another layer to the evolving market structure, are just leverage Bitcoin ETF I claim to be above.
Presto suggests that they represent a new type of financial engineering that can be less risk than many investors think.
The latest capital increase in strategy, which has secured almost $ 1 billion through permanent preferred stocks, shows how Bitcoin’s unique volatility can be used to the publisher’s benefits.
Such securities can provide funds for aggressive password strategies without causing margin risks related to leverage location along with sales of convertible bonds and market stocks.
Presto points out that the Bitcoin Holdings of the strategy has been released and the bonds of Metaplanet are not safe.
This means that the main trigger of the past crypto industry, such as Sub and three arrow capital, is not in this structure.
This does not completely eliminate the risk, but fundamentally changes its essence.
Presto argued that the true challenge of CTC is not an exposure to encryption itself, but a disciplinary action to effectively manage dilution, cash flow and capital timing.
Metaplanet’s “Bitcoin yield” metric, which measures BTC per full diluted stock, reflects the important focus of providing shareholder value.
As long as CTC can properly manage the financial epidemiology that supports the accumulation strategy, Presto believes that it will continue to receive the NAV (NAV) premium, similar to the traditional market.
But if they are wrongly calculated, the very tool that supplies fuel to the uphill can easily accelerate the corruption.
