Closely followed analyst Benjamin Cowen says Cardano (ADA) will most likely see another decline against Bitcoin (ADA/BTC) before the end of 2024.
Cowen told his 889,100 followers on social media platform
Cowen notes that what is consistent with the 4-year ADA/BTC pattern is that monetary policy remains relatively restrictive and the U.S. dollar is rebounding. These are generally two bearish conditions for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.
“I think ADA/BTC will fall once more before EOY (year-end) and then rise in 2025.
Showing some statistics for comparison…
Lowest November 2020: 583 Saturday
Highest November 2020: 995 Saturday
Lowest December 2020: 503 Saturday
November 2024 Low: 470 Saturday
November 2024 high: 903 sats (so far)
Lowest December 2024: ???
I would say there is no need for it to fall again once QT (quantitative tightening) ends (since BTC dominance has already reached 60% and ADA/BTC has reached 470sat (and my multi-year target was 400sat).
However, with QT continuing and the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising, it seems unlikely that we can ignore a further decline in ADA/BTC before EOY.“
Cowen has the same general views on altcoins across the board. He shares a chart looking at the TOTAL3-USDT chart, which measures the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and stablecoins.
The analyst notes that TOTAL3-USDT against Bitcoin is struggling to break the levels it reached at the end of 2020, suggesting that the altcoin could still weaken much further.
“Now imagine being able to say that BTC dominance (BTC.D) has dropped to 60%.
I am open-minded about dominance being at the top, but my main concern with that view is that the ALT/BTC pair is still well off its historical lows.
Also, QT continues, DXY and yields are going up, and historically BTC.D goes up in December during the halving.”
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