Bitcoin had a sluggish start to December, showing that bears still have the upper hand. The failure to induce strong bearish buying has made traders cautious, with some analysts pointing to a deeper support zone. Veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed out that BTC’s charts are showing support from below $70,000 to the mid-$40,000 region. Network economist Timothy Peterson expressed similar concerns, saying BTC’s current price action is similar to the second half of 2022. This period did not lead to a strong rally until the following quarter. If that pattern repeats, it may take more time for BTC to see its next major uptrend. However, not all signals are trending bearish. The cryptocurrency ETP attracted $1.07 billion in inflows last week, ending its fourth consecutive week of outflows, according to CoinShares. This shows that actual demand is entering lower levels.
Institutional sentiment also appears to be changing. Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager, will now allow clients to trade cryptocurrency ETFs and mutual funds on its platform, reversing its previous anti-crypto stance. While Vanguard still refuses to offer memecoin products or create its own ETFs, allowing access to regulated cryptocurrency funds is a major milestone toward mainstream adoption.
In the United States, political pressure on the treatment of cryptocurrency companies continues. Republican lawmakers released a final report accusing the previous administration of blocking banking access to digital asset companies through “informal guidance” and enforcement tactics (what many called “Operation Choke Point 2.0”). Lawmakers have argued that passing the CLARITY Act and broader digital asset legislation is essential to prevent regulators from halting cryptocurrency innovation and establishing clear market structure rules.
Strategy, the largest public Bitcoin holder, is strengthening its base by setting aside $1.44 billion in reserves to cover dividends and debt repayments. Along with this, the company added 130 BTC, increasing its holdings to a symbolic 650,000 BTC, worth over $48 billion. The Company aims to enhance the long-term attractiveness of its treasury and preferred stock by maintaining strong cash reserves.
In Asia, Japan continues to modernize its cryptocurrency regulatory environment. The government is supporting a major overhaul of cryptocurrency taxation, moving from a complex tiered system with tax rates of up to 55% to a flat 20% tax on cryptocurrency profits. The reform, expected to become law in early 2026, will align cryptocurrency taxation with stocks and investment funds, making Japan much more competitive for investors and startups.
market outlook
BTC is still struggling in early December and sentiment is becoming cautious. Unless BTC is found guilty and recovers $100,000, deeper support could be tested again. ETH remains relatively stable, but a break above $3,350 is needed to shift momentum. XRP is range bound as traders watch for a breakout of the descending structure. Overall, the market is showing early signs of stabilization, but confirmation will largely depend on new inflows, macro clarity, and BTC’s ability to regain key moving averages.
Bitcoin turned lower on Monday after failing several times to break the 20-day EMA of $91,999, showing that sellers remain firmly in control. If BTC closes below $84,000, the BTC/USDT pair could quickly decline towards $80,600. This zone between $80,600 and $73,777 marks a major support cluster and is therefore expected to attract aggressive buying. On the positive side, the bulls need to reclaim the 20-day EMA to show true strength. A sustained break above this level could open the door to the 50-day SMA near $101,438. However, if $73,777 is not held, the selloff could intensify and BTC risks a deeper correction towards the $54,000 area.
Ether also rejected the 20-day EMA at $3,052 on Sunday, confirming that traders continue to sell on the relief rally. The Bears will now try to push ETH below $2,623 to restart the downtrend. If successful, the ETH/USDT pair could fall to $2,400 and later to $2,111. Bulls will need to turn the 20-day EMA into support to regain momentum. A move above this level could lead ETH back to the $3,350 collapse level, which is a key line for bears to defend.
XRP remains under pressure and has fallen to $2.18 at the 20-day EMA, indicating that bullish interest has waned. The XRP/USDT pair may now fall towards the support line of the descending channel, where buyers are likely to intervene. A strong bounce and a break above the 20-day EMA suggests that the pair may continue to grow within the channel. However, a close below the support line would expose the $1.61 level. If that bottom breaks, XRP could head to $1.25.
BTC remains vulnerable below the 20-day EMA with support between $80K and $74K. A close above $92,000 would be the first sign that momentum is returning to a bull market. ETH needs to hold $2,623 to avoid a deeper decline. The $3,050-$3,350 zone will remain strong resistance until it is reclaimed. XRP is trading near the bottom of that channel and traders should watch for a bounce towards $2.18 or a full decline towards $1.61. Overall, the market remains defensive, and any recovery attempt is likely to be met with a moderate sell-off until key moving averages recover.
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